Thunder/Spurs Game 2 total I thought I'd look into this total with a 2 unit play to the over from 201.5. I found this one challenging to review and harder to draw a conclusion. And I'm even going to throw out another angle after the basic stuff why I really don't like it over.
If there were a RS game I might have come up with a number around 205-206. But for a playoff game based on the pace these teams have played throughout I'm coming up with a number around 198. Now they did play at a pace higher than I would expect in the first game but as we know that first game ended with at least 3 made 3's by OKC and FT for the Spurs in the last minute. I calculate roughly 7 possessions in the last minute or so of the game. I'd like to say the game went according to expectations in terms of pace although I recognize these endings probably average much higher possessions in the last minute because of the fouling. It is hard for me to really endorse the over with my basic number lower of 198 for this game.
The teams have consistently gone over their totals the last few games they've played though. These teams were lined in the mid 190's through the regular season and then got jacked over 200 for their last RS meeting and Game 1. They made it over in the RS but finally hit the snag with the playoff game.
Now the wild card. What I really don't like about the over is the number of minutes played by Thabo Sefolosha in the first game. He played over 30 minutes and if we follow his stats he can be a factor in a total in an NBA to the under. And I did make an assumption that the Thunder games do score less the more he plays earlier in the RS. During the season he played only 14 minutes one game, 23 minutes in another and was a DNP in one of the games vs. the Spurs The fact that he would see this many minutes has to tell me that OKC likes his presence in the lineup in this matchup. I really don't think another 30 minutes is good for the over.
If he's playing more minutes he'll see more time with the better offensive players so for sure these figures are magnified and too high but the Thunder score 8 more points per 100 possessions when he's OFF the floor and they permit 9 fewer points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor. What is at least forgiving is that his playoff numbers do not show this tendency so far defensively but he's still 7 pts less per 100 possessions offensively.
The bottom line is I'd almost say I like this game under if I was confident in my 198 number and then combined Sefolosha I would really like this under. I'll have to defer a little to the fact that my playoff number isn't that solid and if I even average my 206 and 198 I get 202 as a number. I still have to account Sefolosha IMO but I don't want to be too overconfident in that angle either but it does seem obvious from numbers he's an issue. However, I don't know whether to expect another 30 minutes from him or not.
What I want to do is bet this game under 204. I really don't want the over but it is just my opinion. I give the play a thumbs down. I don't think the speed of the game was much faster than expected last game and it seemed to be cruising well under the total until the last minute. I think it was correct to drop this total a point or two and I still like it under.
