Thunder - Suns Totals Recommendation -- 12/31

Thunder - Suns Totals Recommendation -- 12/31 The Suns finally got their offense going yesterday. Steve Nash rebounded well from what he called the worst game of his life to record 12 assists. The only reason that the game stayed under was the lack of offense from the Hornets. Here, we expect both teams to be pouring in the points. Phoenix is 6-0 OU after a road win on the road in which Steve Nash had at least 10 assists, going over by an average of 23.8 ppg. Also, the Suns are 6-0 OU (12.8 ppg) after a win in which Channing Frye had more rebounds than points. As a team, Phoenix is 4-0 OU after a road win in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two, going over by an average of 27.9 ppg. Wow. Don’t mistake the fact that the Hornets shot 28.9% from the field for a sudden jump in the level of the Suns’ defense. We expect the Thunder to shoot over 50% from the field here. We have a nice league-wide, multi-season system that states. NBA teams are 10-0 OU as a road dog after a win in which they allowed less than 35% from the field, going over by an average of 20.8 ppg. The undefeated Thunder are rolling along led by MVP candidate Kevin Durant. This is the first unrested opponent they have this season. We expect them to put on an offensive show vs the defensively challenged Suns. The Thunder are a perfect 11-0 OU at home when Kevin Durant scored at least 30 points the last two games. Check it out with this SDQL text: team=Thunder and H and 30-10 and season>=2009 Note that Oklahoma City has gone over by an average of 16.1 ppg in this spot. Last season, these two were 4-0 OU in their four meetings and NONE of the OU lines were below 210. What is this number doing at 197? Take the OVER. MTi’s FORECAST: OKLAHOMA CITY 114 Phoenix 101

Good call and I'm sure you've heard this before but can we make a logical argument why any of the trends you've discovered have anything to do with the total on the game? That is the mean question. There is a nice question to follow. Do we care as long as it wins? All of the power to you if it wins believe me. This did get nailed 3 pts over after open and it is a nice call. There aren't enough trials in this for the data to have statistical significance that has to be true. However, you do pour on about 4 other angles that are also perfect in predicting the over. Obviously you're doing alot of work here and you're pretty clear in support of your play. But I think we would really be on to more if we knew why when Steve Nash has 10 assists or more in a game the next game goes over provided they're on the road. And what does it mean other than that stat itself? For example imagine a world where the total for this game was 210. Now I think sharp bettors would bet that under but your trends are still telling us to bet it over. The trends tell us to bet it over a total of 240 for that matter. This type of analysis won't even figure out a mistake in a line so I almost have to assume I have a fair line to give these methods a shot. Hopefully this doesn't sound combative but at the same time I have to admit it is the point of my note.

These are excellent questions you pose. I wish I had the answers. I'm a LONG way from producing something like 56% winners, but I figure if I post my stuff here, it can be fine-tuned by intelligent, thoughtful, knowledgeable contributions. Here are some of my comments/responses. I believe that the player-based trends such as the one involving Steve Nash are not factored into the line. Therefore, I believe these type of trends offer line value. Further, it is easy to imagine the rest of the team playing with more confidence and energy on the offensive end when Nash is getting them the ball in the right spot. That said, I do not believe that it is necessary to know WHY a trend is performing the way it does. Many computer programs are "Black Box." I know a lot of financial firms that base their decisions on computer programs that have no idea WHY the program is making that choice. I also know for a fact that credit card fraud is detected with "black box" computer programs. When a transaction is flagged as a possible fraud, NO ONE knows what it was flagged. So, if the number Vegas puts out is good WITHOUT the knowledge of the player-based trends, then I think I have an edge. I will try to continue to post here to see if we can find the edge. I thank you for your comments. It was hope to get a critical response when I posted it. Warm Regards, Ed