Under The Radar NCAA Tourney Fact-Based Info Thread Purpose of this thread is not to just throw picks out there, the purpose is to throw picks out based on information that Dick Vitale isn't talking about. There's a lot of ways to look at these games, and there's still 64 teams, all of which have strengths and weaknesses. Styles of play that they do well against and styles they struggle against (why would anyone play even a minute of man-to-man against Kentucky?).
So for the next three weeks let's dig deep here. Google away, hit Twitter hard, glean something valuable from a podcast. Just don't let any of it be from Vitale.
I'll kick it off. I was researching universal-wise-guy-good-thing Murray State, and while I'm as impressed as anyone that they shoot 50% while allowing under 40%, they have a real weakness. It's playing against a zone defense.
I read several of their game stories that had paragraphs like, "The Racers lead dwindled when Florida International went to a zone defense that seemed to confuse MSU and helped fuel a 14-3 run". They struggled against Morehead State's zone and I saw it mentioned in a couple of other game stories as well.
ESPNU analyst Tim Welsch (former Iona & Providence coach) mentioned the same thing. He was the color man for the OVC tourney and said that Murray State struggled each time the opponent tossed out a zone.
Kevin Stallings has overachieved at both Illinois State and Vandy. The guy didn't just fall off the turnip truck. Vandy has played zone when the occassion has called for it and they zoned Georgia very effectively last weekend. I'd be very surprised if Murray State sees much man from the Commodores.
Beyond that, Vandy is much taller and their big guys much more athletic than what Murray State is used to. Plus, when I was in Vegas a couple of weeks ago, a cab driver asked me the best place to bet Murray State to win it all. And now it's impossible to find a newspaperman who isn't picking Murray State as his "upset special".
So in addition to Murray's inability to handle a zone, the public, none of whom have seen them play, love them as their bracket busting dark horse. That's fine with me, I'll lay a bucket or bucket and a half with the 4 seed over the 13 seed. I played Vandy -2 (-120), as I buy the hook when 2 and 7 are involved and buying 2 is a bit of a reach, so -2.5 is just fine.
Please dig deep and continue this thread with something important that we may not know.
