Vegas-Runner's CBB "True Steam" for Thursday

Vegas-Runner's CBB "True Steam" for Thursday Allright Gentlemen...Time to resume our "True Steam" for this week...Because of MLK Day on Monday, an extremely limited board on Tuesday, and then having to tape this week's video pod-casts...and work on an extremely huge board last night...this bet ends up being our first official "True Steam" position for this week... We are currently cashing 67% of CBB "True Steam" Bets...Which has helped me stay RANKED #1 in CBB at The Sports Monitor for BOTH..."Winning % and Most Money Won" for a number of weeks...Which isn't the easiest thing to do when you wager as much Volume as we do... And as you've seen with football and so far in basketball...the majority of these "True Steam" Bets, do make my Premium Card...Because these are always "steam plays" that are supported by my own Ratings/Numbers...And the only time that I don't Upgrade them to at least a 2u bet, is when I'm unable to receive more support as I try to confirm and finalize each day's card... Finally, we are "40-21" (66% ATS) Overall on "True Steam" Bets for 2009 & 2010...And I really think that I've isolated another CBB position for tonight, that should add to those results...and also get Upgraded to a Premium Play...So let's get right to tonight's wager... CBB "TRUE STEAM" for THURSDAY 1-21-10 : 1.) NC GREENSBORO opened -1....Now -2 (Bet UNC-Greensboro) The opening number for this match-up went up yesterday evening, and did not receive any sharp money immediatley after opening...Nor did it receive any as Wednesday came to a close...So this morning, we were seeing UNCG -1 all across the board...But that didn't last long because we saw some Wiseguys step up and grab +1 on Tenn-Chatanooga...That surprised me at first because I had made my "Fair Line" UNCG -2...and my "True Line" -4... But then I remembered one of the concepts that we've covered plenty of times in these Blogs...And that is, we know the Betting Syndicates always look for opportunities to get +POINTS with BOTH teams in the same game...Which means they end up with a "Dog Bet" on BOTH teams...And that is obviously a bet with plenty of value...So I sat back to see if I was correct, and if so...that meant the Outfits would try to drive the line up to -1 or higher on Tenn-Chat, so they can come right back and unload on UNCG at a Dog price...Especially if they don't want to take an official position, and instead are trying to earn via a "middle"... Well, that almost happened...But as soon as this game went to PICK, it appears that at least a few of the Betting Syndicates saw that there was just too much value on the Home-Team...And rather than run the risk of being left out of the party, they imediately went to work laying all the UNCG at PK, that they could get their hands on... They didn't stop there...and as the sportsbooks hurried to adjust, after seeing the "True" intentions of the Wiseguys for this match-up...the Outfits continued to lay UNCG -1 & -1.5...Which forced the adjustment all the way up to -2... Now if you didn't see all of this take place...You may figure that this isn't really a significant move...Because it's only a 1 PT adjustment from the opening number...But nothing could be further from the truth...Because it appears that they like this position on UNCG so much, that they abandoned trying to get Both teams at a Dog Price so they don't miss out on getting down on UNCG at what I believe was an extremely weak number... LINE PREDICTION : After doing some work on this match-up...I am now convinced that this line was based on nothing more than "Public Perception"...Because the betting public is going to see that an 11-7 team is actually a dog, to a 3-15 club...that they've beaten 3 straight times...And because of this, I would not be surprised at all to see some public money come in on Tenn-Chat and help the books get some balance on this match-up...But because this is an "Added Board" game, and there are plenty of other match-ups to choose from...As well as a handful of Televised Games, I don't think that the public money on this match-up will be enough to bring this line back down to -1 or PICK...So unless there is another "Buy-Order" sent out, I believe that we should see this line stay where it is...with possibly a 1/2 pt adjustment either way...VR Bottom Line...these Overall Records are extremely misleading...Because although UNCG is only 3-15, they only have "1" less Conference Win than their opponent, Tenn-Chat...And more importantly, when we take a look at the "Strength of Schedule" (SOS) for BOTH teams...we find that UNCG has played the #17th TOUGHEST SCHEDULE in CBB...and #9th TOUGHEST "NON-CONFERECE" SCHEDULE in CBB... On the flip side...Tenn-Chat may be 11-7...But they've played the #304th TOUGHEST SCHEDULE in CBB...and #219th TOUGHEST NON-CONFERENCE SCHEDULE in CBB... So those misleading Overall Records give us plenty of Value on this wager...And since my "True-Line" is -4, I believe that there is still enough value for us to step up and take a position on UNCG -1.5 or -2 as well...Thanks again for your continued support, and best of luck...Vegas-Runner...

[QUOTE=VEGAS-RUNNER;15377]But that didn't last long because we saw some Wiseguys step up and grab +1 on Tenn-Chatanooga...That meant the Outfits would try to drive the line up to -1 or higher on Tenn-Chat, so they can come right back and unload on UNCG at a Dog price...Especially if they don't want to take an official position, and instead are trying to earn via a "middle"...[/QUOTE] LOL. I usally try to earn by middling the zero as well.

Nice job once again VR!!

[QUOTE=Jackie Peanuts;15439]LOL. I usally try to earn by middling the zero as well.[/QUOTE] Actually, the goal is to try and get better than +1 on BOTH SIDES...If you look at just last night you will see that "5" GAMES were decided by just "2" POINTS or less... So all that "Old School" stuff about Teasers or Parlays being Sucker Bets...and going through Zero's...are being proven wrong by simple math... Misconceptions are the most dangerous things for sports bettors because they are passed down from generation to generation...And rather than do the math, and back it up with numbers which NEVER lie...they instead just accept it as truth...Which is exactly what the sports books depend on... Believe me, just like they said for years that there are no "KEY NUMBERS" in College Basketball...that theory was also proved wrong by a Cal Poly Student who wrote one of the best papers that I've ever read on College Basketball Numbers... I'm not saying that anyone is wrong, nor that I am right...I'm simply saying that you have to make sure that you have facts and figures before you assume something has a positive or negative EV... Best of Luck, and Thanks Again...Vegas-Runner

[QUOTE=Redskins;15444]Nice job once again VR!![/QUOTE] Thanks Red...and best of luck to you this weekend my man, VR

[QUOTE=VEGAS-RUNNER;15465] Believe me, just like they said for years that there are no "KEY NUMBERS" in College Basketball...that theory was also proved wrong by a Cal Poly Student who wrote one of the best papers that I've ever read on College Basketball Numbers...[/QUOTE] You have a link to that paper? I would love to read it as well. I find it hard to believe that a student has a better idea than someone like myself with a database of what the value of each number is worth.

[QUOTE=VEGAS-RUNNER;15465]Actually, the goal is to try and get better than +1 on BOTH SIDES...If you look at just last night you will see that "5" GAMES were decided by just "2" POINTS or less... So all that "Old School" stuff about Teasers or Parlays being Sucker Bets...and going through Zero's...are being proven wrong by simple math... Misconceptions are the most dangerous things for sports bettors because they are passed down from generation to generation...And rather than do the math, and back it up with numbers which NEVER lie...they instead just accept it as truth...Which is exactly what the sports books depend on...[/QUOTE] In the game you used, you said that the "outfits" bet +1. Not better than that. Then you said it could have very well been an attempt to get the line to -1 to bet the +1 on the other side. Your words, sir. Not mine. Check your post. And please don't say I am not doing the math and have certain misconceptions. I just checked my database. Thousands upon thousands of games, and just as I thought, not a single time has a game landed on zero.