Warriors/Clippers Saturday

Warriors/Clippers Saturday GS and the Clippers come in both playing well during the past few weeks. I think if Monta Ellis wasn't doubtful for tonight's game the line would likely be the Clippers favoured by 6.5? The line is 8 and some could probably get 8.5. It is a key conference game and I believe they've split the last 2 games which were recently played so I think GS will be quite motivated to play well even on the back to back and I will look to take Golden State with the points in this game. One angle that I'm not sure what it's worth is Monta Ellis and his team +/-. These stats I'm sure can be misleading in that the best players have to play against other best players and weaker teams have to log their best players for longer minutes but Dr. Bob followers will know that he often has what come up as perverse plays when good players are out because his models show that player is overrated. I think Monta is great but he has the worst +/- per minute of any Warrior. No Warrior plays his minutes and the top guys are meaningless but Curry and Wright are significantly better. In the last 10 games when the team has been hot, Ellis is barely even where the minutes are also closer between the players and Lee and Curry show the higest ratings. Ellis is an all star but I do think there may a point of value in this game--and maybe more---regardless if he plays and I'll take Golden State with the points. I would never argue they are better off without him. I just think GS can get by without him for one game and his value may be overstated in the increased points on the spread for tonight.

This will be the 3rd meeting for these two teams in the last 2 weeks each team winning on their home floor, the game in LA was a little less competitive than the game in GS. However it was the rare early start on a Sunday and Golden State did not seem to show up. Clips were fav by 4.5 and the game was never really in doubt and in Golden State, Warriors were -3 and I remember that game being close late in the 4th before Golden State went on a run to end the game. I would initially agree that at 8 points there is value on Golden State, however if Monte Ellis is out you are talking about a player that at a stat value is 25% of a teams total offense which is huge. The players that will see more time because of this Williams and Wright are nice players but not going to make up the difference in offense. Curry will be more of the focal point of the offense but he has not really proved to be a guy that is going to take over a game. In the game that the Warriors beat the Clips in GS they had to shoot over 14-26 from 3, which you can never count on. Also considering this is the classic Back to Back, home/road game for the Warriors after a tough OT win that is another reason why this line is what it is. Both of these teams, like most teams play far better at home than on the road. Clips have to go on the road for a back to back in Dallas and Houston after this and I believe the team is showing more of a focus to win the games they are supposed to. With the emergence of Blake Griffin and the Clips recent better play they seem to be a team that is getting more attention from bettors, the line moved towards the Clips the other night before the Portland game. With a healthy Ellis this line would still be probably 5.5 or 6, I am not sure how much value I would place in just getting those extra points seeing this is one of those games that the Warriors are "supposed" to lose. Warriors surprisingly have a winning record of the second game of a back to back on the road (4-2 by my count), but I do not think that holds up here and the Clips win and probably cover. I have no pick on the side. I do see value in the UNDER at 215 with possibly no Ellis and a Clippers team that should be more motivated on the defensive side after Del Negro focused on that in the press conference after the Portland loss. These 2 teams have the label of offensive teams that play no defense, but I do not see it getting to 215, even if Ellis plays he won't be 100% and GS does not score as well on the road. Just my 2 cents. 525/526 UNDER 215

Top quality thread both from original poster and rebuttal. For what it is worth (And I haven't even began to look at the game) from the board's Warriors "expert". My initial feel is that the Warriors get the money tonight even if Monta doesn't play. This is the final meeting (I believe) of the season between these two teams and the third time they will have played over the past 10-14 days. I would be surprised if the Warriors won tonight...but I would be much more surprised if they didn't keep this within single digits. Someone (Reggie Williams, Dorell Wright, and keep an eye tonight on Acie Law as I just have a feeling he has a good game tonight) will step up to the plate and chip in some unexpected contributions tonight. This Warriors team is gritty and gutty and I feel they give a top notch effort tonight in a battle between 2 up and coming power houses. PS... Monta was joking around and said that being carried off the court last night was a little "over dramatic"... Prolly won't play tonight but he is pretty resilient so it wouldn't shock me.

Line now up to 9.

Monta probably playing IMO But I still could see this one going the Clippers way and covering the number. There is something to be said about the match up here with the Clips being a team that can compete with the Warriors speed in Gordon, Bledsoe, and even B.Davis at times. C and PF clear advantage for Clippers, I think. UNDER down to 214 now. If I am wrong would definitely not be the first time. Or second time.

FWIW I got great news. I bet it 9.5. But I got bad news: I am in +8 as well. A local book popped a +9.5. I've also bet the under. Thanks for the feedback. Hoping I can get a little -8 and bring my size down to bet.

Just in... MONTA ELLIS is starting tonight. FWIW

I'm throwing a big stone on Warriors+9 I'm throwing a small stone on Warriors ML+330 I'm throwing a very small stone on a Warriors ML/UNDER 216 2TP. FWIW

Also... Acie Law is a late scratch so he won't be the unexpected scoring punch. I'm going to put my unexpected hero tag on Vladimir Radmanovich to score 15+ tonight in surprising role.