Warriors @ Mavericks This is a game I will be attending tonight and here is the way I see it unfolding...
Last time these two met I was also in attendance and scored some nice winners in both the Warriors plus the points and the Warriors on the ML.
That game turned out to be one of the most impressive wins the NBA has seen all season long as the 6 handed Warriors (Maggette & Turiaf were pregame scratches) pulled out a huge 4th quarter and handed the Mavericks the outright loss in a game they were a double digit favorite in.
A lot has changed since that game.
In completely random order.....
Anthony Morrow (When healthy the league's best shooter although not many realize it yet) hit some very timely 3's (6-8 from deep in that game and scored 27 points) and played an all around solid game in the Warriors last visit to Dallas. He is expected to miss tonight's game with a lingering knee injury and even if he does play it will be his first action on the court in over a few weeks.
Anthony Randolph who also had a huge 4th quarter in late November in the win versus Dallas is also out.
The Mavericks in that game were without Erick Dampier who is playing great this year (of course it is a contract year) and he gives his old Warriors team fits on the boards.
The Mavericks were also without Josh Howard in the previous contest.
The Mavericks were also without Shawn Marion in the previous contest.
The Mavs are in a perfect revenge spot versus a short handed Warriors team that has lost it's last 5 games by double digits. This time though the Mavs can't afford to overlook them.
The Mavs are in a spot to snap a 3 game losing streak of their own and I feel will be focused.
In their previous meeting Vladimir Radmonivich had just been acquired just a week before he primarily guarded Dirk in late November and I have to admit I had a perfect courtside view of one of the best defensive games I have ever seen guarding Dirk straight up.....and Dirk still scored 28 points!!!!
To this day it is the best defensive game I have ever seen Radmonivich play by far and the Mavs simply couldn't score in the 4th quarter that night (21 points for entire quarter)
So my thoughts are....Was this just a fluke where Vlad was trying so hard to impress his new coach and teammates and gave 100% effort and Dirk complied with not having a great game himself and it snowballed into a bad looking matchup for Dirk offensively?
Since this game the human "space cadet" Radmonivich has fallen far from favor as his poor overall shooting has destroyed his confidence and he has even been booed by the home fans.
I don't see him amping up to stop a determined Dirk tonight in a game that Dallas needs to get back on track.
Since this meeting the Warriors because of the most massive amount of injuries to ever plague an NBA team have been forced to play D-League players Anthony Tolliver, Chris Hunter, and Coby Karl major minutes of late.
In fact George's son Coby was called up just 4-5 days ago and played 38 minutes in last night's game in Houston.
These poor Warriors are just ravaged by injuries and the "bunker down" and play for your brother mentality that had them covering so many games earlier in the season after the S-Jax trade and the early season injuries is finally starting to wither away, leaving this team with little firepower and little incentive to overcome a tall order like competing with a Mavericks team that is healthy, at home, and looking to stop a skid.
Mavericks HUGE tonight.
Opened at 11.....last I checked was at 12.
I'm currently on Mavs -12 (overnight didn't come up before I went to bed) and Mavs-7 1H (Played at +100 instead of -6.5 -112) and I will be playing Mavs in 1Q (hopefully -3.5) as well.
It will be a very ironic evening.
I'll be at the AAC tonight with my beloved Warriors gear on.....rooting for the hated Mavericks. :(
But you have to play with your head not your heart.
I hope I don't make a fool of myself but this is how I predict this thing to play out:
Mavs lead by 10-12 points after 1Q.
Mavs lead by 15-18 points at the half.
Mavs win by 35+ in game.
There is just really no reason for the Mavs to not blow this decimated Warriors team out tonight.
None whatsoever. They simply have too many healthy big body's (Damp, Gooden, Najera, Dirk, Howard) for the Warriors to keep off the boards tonight.
If it doesn't happen the Mavs are in BIG trouble and I will be betting against them in many games post all star break.
This is a game they have to win in easy fashion.
And they will.
Good luck
Burg
EDIT:
After re-reading post I forgot to mention that Maggette missed last night's game with a hip pointer injury and is obviously questionable for tonight and although not widely reported Monta Ellis (who still had a great game in the blowout loss last night) has a very sore wrist that was hurt in a practice or weight lifting incident. In fact Coach Nelson was suprised last night that he could shoot the ball because during practice his wrist had been tightening up to the point where he could only drive to basket as it was too painful to shoot from the perimeter.
