Wednesday MVC Opinion [B]Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Illinois State @ Wichita State
Recommendation: Take Wichita State -6.5[/B]
I’m not a big believer in the value of home courts, and consistently look to back road underdogs and road favorites throughout the course of the college basketball season. That being said, there are homecourts which are worthy of respect – tough, nasty places for opposing teams to play. Wichita State has that type of a homecourt. The Shockers are 12-0 on this floor this year, with ten of those victories coming by double digit margins, and another by nine points against a Northern Iowa team that had won 15 in a row prior to their visit to Koch Arena.
Wichita State played arguably their worst game of the season on Saturday, blown out at Drake. They’ve lost three other games this year. All three times, the Shockers bounced back with a strong performance in their next ballgame, winning those three contests by a combined 47 points. Its surely worth noting that one of those games was an ugly loss at Illinois State in their conference opener, back when the Redbirds were the hot commodity and the Shockers were the afterthought in the Missouri Valley race. In short, Wichita State at home off a loss with revenge is a betting opportunity worth looking for.
The Shockers have the depth to wear Illinois State down. Nine players get double digit minutes in Gregg Marshall’s rotation; no player averages more than 30 minutes per contest. Wichita State has the size to bang with Dinma Odiakosa, Jackie Carmichael and Tony Lewis inside, an undersized frontcourt trio for the Redbirds. The Shockers guards are stellar defenders. Toure’ Murray, Clevin Hannah, Graham Hatch and David Kyles all average at least one steal per game, leading to easy transition buckets.
The stats tell a clear story here. Wichita State has the better defensive field goal percentage and the better offensive field goal percentage. The Shockers force more turnovers. They defend the three point line better than the Redbirds. They are the better rebounding team. They have the superior assist-to-turnover ratio on offense and on defense. And, so crucial in tight conference games like this one, Wichita State hits free throws at a 75 percent clip, capable of sealing the deal in the final minutes. Put it all together and the case for the short home favorite is perfectly clear.
[B]Take Wichita State. (#740) [/B]
