[QUOTE=tradermac;41342]Not saying UCONN won't cover, but I see this every year. By the title game, everyone thinks a certain team has "it". They get overbet. Like Duke last year. All you would see on every message board is how they were going to cover. No reason for it. Both teams ranked pretty close during the year. By the tournament, Duke was ranked somewhere between 4 and 8 and Butler was somewhere between 14 and 20. Figure in Duke's name recognition, and they're 3 or 4 spots apart. No way that game should have had a 7 point spread.
Same thing this year. Butler ranked around 15th before the year, UCONN not ranked. Both teams start out great. Butler has a rough patch in conference, UCONN has a rough patch in conference. They both win their conference tournaments and have some close games in the NCAA tournament. Butler was there last year. That has to count for something.
The right side in this game is either team plus the points. Everyone is going to bet UCONN, but this game should be a pick. If you bet on UCONN minus the points, you're betting on the name on the jersey and the great players from the past.[/QUOTE]
I disagree w/ the anology to Duke last year. They were a #1 seed who ran through the tournament. Only 1 win by fewer than 13 points, and that was by 7 points to Baylor in the Elite 8. They were off a 21 point thrashing to WVA in the final 4. Butler meanwhile was off of narrow win time and time again. Aside from a 1st round win of 18, they won by 2, 4, 7, and a narrow 2 point win in the final 4. Plus, as you said, name recognition.
Here you have Butler who was there last year vs. a UCONN team off who won their last 3 games by 7, 2 and 1 point.
My point is, it's not like every sees UCONN having "it" like Duke had "it" last year. UCONN this tournament is no where near what Duke was perceived last year.
