Who will advance further? I like betting these match-up bets. What I look for is a decent discrepancy
in the very first round. Most times these bets are created by just pairing
same seeds vs each other. Usually that is enough to eyeball it from there
and declare one side a small fave over the other. VCU and UNLV are both
5 seeds but their first round match-ups are very different types of spots.
VCU -150 vs UNLV
VCU gets Akron in the first game. VCU is experienced, fundamentally sound
and plays pressure defense which is something that Akron may have difficulty
with. Akron is a very good team but is playing without their starting point guard who
was suspended March 8 over some drug stuff prior to their last game. He is their leading
assist guy and three-point shooter. The replacement is a 5'11" freshman who might find the
big stage and the difficult defensive match-up overwhelming. They made it past Ohio in
the conf championship and that's was something of a surprise to some but this time
they get an experienced team and coach who have their sights set on a deep run.
Akron will surprise no one here, nor catch their opponent napping. I bet VCU -310
money line on Monday and that price has now risen to -400 at Pinnacle.
UNLV gets Cal in San Jose in what has to be one of the worst spots in the tourney.
Playing a foe they nipped earlier in the season and at a venue that clearly favors
Cal is a tough first round assignment. Game opened UNLV -3 and is down to -2/2.5
with a no-vig money-line at Pinnacle of approx -141.
VCU, according to the current money-line, has an approx 77% shot
of getting to game two.
UNLV, according to the current money-line, has an approx 58% shot
of getting to game two.
That makes the chance of both teams losing in round one close to 10%. PUSH
The chance of VCU winning the bet after one round would be approx 32%
The chance of UNLV winning the bet after one round would be approx 13%
If the bet dealt with only the first round the line would have to be VCU -245.
After round one both teams face probable #4 seeds and things would be much
more even from that point forward, but that big edge in round one is enough
to take VCU -150.
The other match-up I see involving VCU is vs OK St (VCU -150) who gets what
most consider a very under seeded Oregon in round one and in a decent venue
for Oregon (San Jose). I don't like that one as much as vs Akron but it still looks
like plus EV. Someone suggested that I could take Akron plus the big points as
some sort of VCU insurance but that line would have to get to +9 before I'd
consider that. Found this bet online at a couple spots. Going to try and find
some in LV today.
Any other match-ups anyone likes? Most seem to involve the top two seeds.
