WNBA Plays Thread,, 604 MINNY -5 1 weight

not in the least. You must KNOW before you bet big like that. Well played, and way to pick the only dog on the board that covered...wait, it's WNBA, way to pick the only bitch that covered LOL

SEA went undefeated last year, I figured they come our firing........ I couldn't lay the points since the power ratings didn't like it.......

[QUOTE=Fezzik;44055]STill not understanding the Phx line move -5.5 up to -8. EIGHT! I am AN IDIOT not to hunck bet SA here tonight.[/QUOTE] Fezz, You know this racket 10,000% better than I do and probably have forgotten more than I will ever know but it sure seems like you put more faith in the market than yourself. After a certain amount of move it would appear that even if the market was right about the original line by the time it has moved that far it is now better on the other side.

Probably shouldn't make generalized conclusions based on this single result.

[QUOTE=RightAngle;44067]Probably shouldn't make generalized conclusions based on this single result.[/QUOTE] I was certainly not making a conclusion. It was more of a comment on Fezz's ability and a question regarding the line movement. And my comment was written with the perspective of over a year CLOSELY following this board not just this one event. I know memory can be selective but it seems that when there is a large line movement and Fezz is on the other side of the market it generally works out ok.

[QUOTE=bkeiller;44068]I was certainly not making a conclusion. It was more of a comment on Fezz's ability and a question regarding the line movement. And my comment was written with the perspective of over a year CLOSELY following this board not just this one event. I know memory can be selective but it seems that when there is a large line movement and Fezz is on the other side of the market it generally works out ok.[/QUOTE] Sorry, did not intend to direct my post towards you specifically. I just mean that because this one result happened a certain way does not mean Fezz made the wrong decision.

[QUOTE=RightAngle;44070]Sorry, did not intend to direct my post towards you specifically. I just mean that because this one result happened a certain way does not mean Fezz made the wrong decision.[/QUOTE] No offense taken RAS. Dont know you personally but I do know that you are HIGHLY respected by the members of the board and have an immense amount of credibility on this subject. Again, I guess the whole point was that if a respected capper, like Fezz or yourself, has an opinion on a side and the market moves the game a huge amount the other way then it seems like I would rather take you guys and the points and in that particular instance be against the market. Although I understand that normally you dont want to bet against the market. Hope that makes sense and again its just my observation.

bk, I think the opposite is true, ESPECIALLY if you have a following For example, if RAS releases a game OVER 140, and it closes 136, it would be ez to say "SURELY, this is a great play now". The truth is that it probably is a rare total lemon......the ONLY way this line collapsed is for someones to be betting a TON of money THE OTHER WAY, not just moving the line, but offsetting the RAS bettors........ This phenomena explains why if RAS releases and you wait an hour, and then only bet the plays where you get the release numbers, you likely will get your teeth kicked in........DESPITE RAS hitting 56%

Thanks for clarifying that Fezz. Would it also be true though if it was for example a major game (ie NFL etc) where there could be an avalanche of so called donk money rather than a WNBA play?? Again I dont have a ton of experience but it sure seems like I have been more successful fading large line moves than betting with the market after the move.

I'm an idiot for not Chunk Betting TULSA I watched these gals go NUTS with effort the last 2 games, this one set up great vs. the worst team in the East. I didn't win 1 unit, I lost 2 ..............in opportunity cost. 8-3 YTD