Solved to my satisfaction...almost [QUOTE=kgbted21;7521]You are missing something. Look at the ways that you can win both bets and they are equally unlikely as to losing them both. You are just wasting juice here. They are highly, highly anti correlated. There was another thread on this topic a few weeks ago with the USC/Wash. St. game.[/QUOTE]
Many great responses to this proposition. The point was that Ohio State favored by 44 was either too high and/or that the total of 48 was to low. So a bettor makes two straight bets...New Mexico State +44 and over the total of 48.
I got out the pencil and paper and wrote down hundreds and hundreds of possible scores. It still stands that there are only four final scores in this game in which you'd lose both bets...Ohio State winning 45-0, 46-0, 47-0 and the highly unlikely 46-1.
Then came a great number of bets in which you'd tie one and lose the other. Not good.
Then there were the even greater number of bets where you'd lose the juice by winning one and losing one.
That still left plenty of final scores which you'd win both bets. The further I went, the more unrealistic the scores became...i.e. New Mexico winning 23-22.
This still [B]appears[/B] to be a winning bet in the long run, but not like "finding money on the sidewalk" which I thought it was.
Now I'm going back and finding that USC/Washington State game thread mentioned above.
