#148 Arizona-Toledo total Over 59.5.
This total has actually creeped a little lower (even a 59 or two out there perhaps), but fundamental strengths/weaknesses of teams point to the high side.
In its last 11 games against BCS opponents over four years, Toledo has allowed an average of 39.3 points per game (That includes in a 10-point output by Michigan two years ago in the Rockets' upset over the Wolverines). All of those opponents _ with the exception of the aforementioned Michigan _ scored at least 31 points, with the "mean" of those teams being 41.
Arizona brings a Pac 10 offensive pedigree, with long-haired Texan Nick Foles now in his second year as the Cats' starting quarterback.
The Wildcats, meanwhile, return just four starters on defense.
The teams averaged 70 and 71 offensive plays a game last year and both passed it more than they ran it.
Wind is expected to be in the high teens at game time, but college football is a game of intermediate passing, so not putting great stock in any weather issues.
Take the OVER.
Good luck,
Paul
