168 Ky/LOU UNDER 49.5 2 weight

168 Ky/LOU UNDER 49.5 2 weight Very good bet...............

Fezz...how much of a line movement with your picks would still be considered a "safe" play? I seem to always be too late to the party and most of your plays have moved at least a point. The best line I could find on this one at is 48.5...would this still be a play at that number? Thanks for all of your input to this board!!

48.5 under still good No good UND 47.5

I know things are bit a different with week 1, but will there be a standard time for when you'll give out plays? I'm sure there are people who paid to sign up here solely to follow your releases but aren't able to get down on the same number you have who are annoyed by this.

This was an issue last August, too. In short, this is not a "picks" site. Fezzik's picks are nice to have, as are Alf's, but if you miss them, there will be others. Having all the picks released at a set time has several disadvantages: 1) Everyone hammers the line at once, causing a line movement that makes the play useless anyway. That happens now. It would be worse with announced picks. 2) Some sites are members here and may move the line before they take any action on it. 3) Sudden, heavy one-sided action can result in wagers being canceled for bullshit reasons, like our friend in the other thread with his UCLA total wins prop. There's no easy way to give out picks when you move a line the way Fezzik does. Sometimes he announces when he will post them. Luckily there are others on here who are pretty sharp yet don't move the line as much. Learning the how and the why behind the picks helps you handicap your own. For me, that's where the value of LVASports lies.

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;25642] There's no easy way to give out picks when you move a line the way Fezzik does. Sometimes he announces when he will post them. Luckily there are others on here who are pretty sharp yet don't move the line as much. Learning the how and the why behind the picks helps you handicap your own. For me, that's where the value of LVASports lies.[/QUOTE] I agree. I don't have an account at LVA to follow Fezzik's picks either. I probably would if I could get the same numbers as him, but don't really bother trying. I enjoy discussing the theories and techniques like you. What I was saying is that I'm sure there are plenty of people who signed up at LVA with the sole intention of following Fezzik when they find out how hard it is, they may feel a bit cheated (I know, I know a grand $25 a month).

[QUOTE=IrishTim;25643]I agree. I don't have an account at LVA to follow Fezzik's picks either. I probably would if I could get the same numbers as him, but don't really bother trying. I enjoy discussing the theories and techniques like you. [B]What I was saying is that I'm sure there are plenty of people who signed up at LVA with the sole intention of following Fezzik when they find out how hard it is, they may feel a bit cheated (I know, I know a grand $25 a month).[/QUOTE][/B] ANd if Fezz Monster gets off to a good start then it will be much much harder similar to RAS. Just watch., If Fezz stumbles a little then that will help people get down.

Not saying he should do this, and I understand/respect why he doesn't, but if he released totals on gameday and sides the day before, the lines wouldn't move much and everyone would be able to get down. As it is, these markets are tiny online, so it doesn't take many bets to move the line.

[QUOTE=custer;25658]Not saying he should do this, and I understand/respect why he doesn't, but if he released totals on gameday and sides the day before, the lines wouldn't move much and everyone would be able to get down. As it is, these markets are tiny online, so it doesn't take many bets to move the line.[/QUOTE] Makes sense but Fezz would never go for it. He wants the best of the line and waiting will cost him line value on many plays. Just look at week 1 NFL, He has the better of it. Good idea but not happening.

[QUOTE=Quote: Originally Posted by custer View Post Not saying he should do this, and I understand/respect why he doesn't, but if he released totals on gameday and sides the day before, the lines wouldn't move much and everyone would be able to get down. As it is, these markets are tiny online, so it doesn't take many bets to move the line. JohnnyGun;25659]Makes sense but Fezz would never go for it. He wants the best of the line and waiting will cost him line value on many plays. Just look at week 1 NFL, He has the better of it. Good idea but not happening.[/QUOTE] Custer isn't saying that Fezz should wait to bet these himself. He is saying it could be of more benefit to the board members to wait longer so that more people can get down. The documented W-L percentage would be lower, but overall benefit to members "could" be higher if several times as many people could get down. If the value disappears completely, then of course waiting would benefit nobody.