1st SB PLAY, COLTS 1h-3-105 2 weight (greek)

1st SB PLAY, COLTS 1h-3-105 2 weight (greek) -3 -110, 1 weight. As I've discussed, many reasons to think the Colts are the right side here. Four most important reasons: 1. Colts very good on the road, N.O. not so good away from home sweet dome 2. Colts are playing at a very high level right now, Saints regressing. Saints outgained at home by 200 yards vs. Vikings and their 40 year old Qb. NOT a good sign. Basic strategy in big games is to always look to fade a team off a phony turnover driven win who got their undeservedly, preferably with a phony home win. The Poster child for this might well be some of the Early Denver Bronco SB teams that won at home to get to the SB, parlaying good fortune and a massive HFA to get there. Denver won in 1986 on the infamous fumble.......in a very high scoring game where their D got shredded. 10-42 loss vs. the Skins followed. 3. It's a must win for the Colts. Lose, the season is a disaster. The Aints are just gettting over their hangover from winning the championship LAST week. Atl/Denver SB repeat? 4. Peyton Manning. You only bet against this guy if it is snowing, cold or very Windy. I'll take me chances in Miami. Will likely fire in on Indy on the ML later in the week, but with Indy kicking butt all year EARLY in games (and the Saints not so good early) I think this is a no brainer early bet.

I have: Feb 07 3101 1Q NO SAINTS +½-125 3:25 PM 3102 1Q IND COLTS -½-105 Feb 07 4101 2Q NO SAINTS +½-120 3:25 PM 4102 2Q IND COLTS -½-110 Feb 07 5101 3Q NO SAINTS +½-135 3:25 PM 5102 3Q IND COLTS -½+105 Feb 07 6101 4Q NO SAINTS +½-135 3:25 PM 6102 4Q IND COLTS -½+105 at a credit shop. Why wouldn't I take the Colts in all four quarters?

Don't lay -1/2 every quarter! Colts win by 7, and you could go 1-3. Laying -1/2 rarely a good bet in a quarter. If you want COlts 1q play them -160 ML or less.......but I still like the 1h better.

Nah, I took -3 -110 for a unit and left it alone. I had a feeling it was not as simple as -.5 x 4 = 2.

totally don't understand your statement about the Saints not being a first half team. In their 17 games where they played starters, they scored more points in the 2nd half in just 6 games, and just 1 time in their last 7 games. Half the time in those 6 games were slower first halves and bigger 2nd halves vs. strong running teams who controlled TOP (Dolphins, Panthers, Cowboys). Meanwhile, the Colts have scored more points in the first half in 9 times out of 16 games they played. I also disagree on the Colts great on road and Saints bad on road. But I do agree w/ points 2-4.

Better or worse? Team margin of victory leading at half time :Indianapolis win by 7 to 10 points +500

Another factor is weather. Granted both teams are indoor teams, but the Colts won the Super Bowl in Miami and it was absolutely pouring that night. I don't know the forecast, but anything than less than perfect weather also favors Indy. I played it at -3.5 for the game when it opened, but I love this first half play. Saints will be a little overwhelmed by the moment to start the game. Another parallel to that Colts Super Bowl season was that they couldn't run the ball. One of the untold stories of the AFC Title Game is that they ran for over 100 yds on the Jets. They also couldn't run the ball until they had to in that SB season. They won that SB game running the ball down the Bears throat. It wasn't pretty but they kept getting first downs.

It's going to rain in California Monday and Tuesday. It usually takes about six days for a storm to make it across the country. Rain is definitely possible.

nah [QUOTE=joelshitshow;16015]It's going to rain in California Monday and Tuesday. It usually takes about six days for a storm to make it across the country. Rain is definitely possible.[/QUOTE] How often does rain from California end up in Florida? Not often. Their weather comes from the Gulf of Mexico and across the state. Besides, South Florida is very far south. LA is the latitudinal equivalent of Wilmington, North Carolina. 10 day forecast looks very good, with no rain to speak of (one day of possible showers) in the 5 days before the game. Obviously a 10-day forecast is dicey, but that's what it is.

Saints beat a very strong team last week while playing very poorly. Is this a sign to get off them or ON? Colts beat a total fraud. I also dont get the comments about Saints not being a first half team or not being good on the road. I also dont get further comments that bad weather would help Colts. Saints can run the ball better if it were to pour rain. But I like the Saints, so my bias is there