1st SB PLAY, COLTS 1h-3-105 2 weight (greek)

Rain in CA. will not cross country and rain in FL. Watch FL doppler.

"Colts beat a total fraud." I would hardly call a 45:1 long shot (@ Pinny to win the SB before the playoffs started) with the # 1 defense in the NFL that beat the #4 and #2 seeds and was up 17-6 late in the 1st half vs the #1 Colts to go the the Super Bowl a total fraud. How they got into the playoffs is another story (winning 2 games vs opponents with nothing to play for). At +6 or > the only play is New Orleans. Any semi-sharp worth his salt with multiple outs gets Indy @ -4.5 or <.>

The "lucky win" factor means little with the two week layoff. I don't remember Ind dominating in the first half; quite the reverse: they dominated in the SECOND half! Just last week, they lost the first half to the NYJ. I bet Ind several times when they were in trouble at halftime. Also, it's a fact that New Orleans won by an average score of 32-21 away. Ind won by an average of 28-19 away. The ypp are dead even. IMO, the line is a HUGE overreaction to one week. IMO, NO is a good bet for the first half, not IND.

[QUOTE=Old School;16097] I bet Ind several times when they were in trouble at halftime.[/QUOTE] That was the [B]bet of the season[/B], IMO (or at least one of the top 3). The Colts had to feel really good going down only 4 while the Jets were probably disappointed by the way Peyton methodically dissected their defense in that last drive before halftime. I had Indy for the game, but had taken such a beating the week before (going 0-4) that I didn't want to risk anymore--and I had New Orleans (-3 w/ the extra vig) pending as well in the late game. I also like Indy in the first half as well along with the Chief. I am betting on the Colts' experience along with the tremendous pressure, literally and figuratively, that Brees will be up against in the biggest game of his life. Pinny currently has the Colts 1st qtr -.5 at EV and -155 on the ML. The square shops either don't have their lines up yet or are -.5 -115 with no ML available, instead. That's what separates the men from the boys--the pros have the jack to spread around while many others--myself included!--just take what they can get or miss out altogether. [B]Addendum: Colts 1st qtr line now -.5 +106. I would think if it continues upward to +110, and the ML stays at -155, that it would be [I]the[/I] +EV bet of the two based on the percentages. [/B]

Lucky win here I will take it.

[QUOTE=Fezzik;16726]I will take it.[/QUOTE] Lots of luck in sports. Change one play (like the on-sides kick), and even a 14 point game can change. Tougher every year to beat the sharp lines IMO.