2 pt.conversion confusion

craziest bad beat ever! Tnx ComptrBob great math! I knew atl goin for 2 was wrong but really just a weird call by coach considering the fact that they had a 3rd n 4 on the stl 39 yrd line with i believe 1:52 left in the game up 26-17 and called a hb dive up the middle to either get the 1st down and then take a couple knees or im sure to just run another 40 sec off and punt it. But Turner just happened to break it and score which im sure they werent even expecting but then go for 2???? I dont get it. ATl was -3.5 last leg of a 13 pt. teaser STL+16.5 and atl goes for 2 after a td they didnt even expect WOW! final ATL 34 STL 17

Total Also [QUOTE=vll BIGGZ llv;34265]Tnx ComptrBob great math! I knew atl goin for 2 was wrong but really just a weird call by coach considering the fact that they had a 3rd n 4 on the stl 39 yrd line with i believe 1:52 left in the game up 26-17 and called a hb dive up the middle to either get the 1st down and then take a couple knees or im sure to just run another 40 sec off and punt it. But Turner just happened to break it and score which im sure they werent even expecting but then go for 2???? I dont get it. ATl was -3.5 last leg of a 13 pt. teaser STL+16.5 and atl goes for 2 after a td they didnt even expect WOW! final ATL 34 STL 17[/QUOTE]Cost me an under total tease also at 50 1/2. Not sure how many time outs were left but Turner should have broke it and then hit the ground but they care much more about stats than the team.

STL had NO timeouts left

[QUOTE=IrishTim;34264]Brilliant, thanks ComptrBob. I've been to Tahoe a few times (Heavenly and Squaw) and if/when I go back out, I'd love to meet up and chat about various and sundry topics such as this.[/QUOTE] Thanks for the compliment. Sure, we can meet if you're in the neighborhood. I get to Reno regularly as well.

[QUOTE=ComptrBob;34254] 0.5*(1-P2xA) vs 0.49*(P2xB/0.98) [/QUOTE] What we really see is the decision comes down to the balance of the Team A 2pt failure rate (1-P2xA) vs the Team B 2pt success rate. This makes sense. We can say, from above, for the 1ptXP to be better we must have: 1 - P2xA > P2xB This means Team A has to model Team B's 2pt rate to approximate the correct strategy! E.g. let's say Team A is the league average of 44%, but Team B has a rate of 56%. Then both strategies are about the same. If both teams are good at 2pt conversions say 55%, then Team A going for 2 is the right strategy!