2011 NFL THoughts with Chad Millman Chad Millman BlogVegas lurking in shawdows of NFL lockout
July, 22, 2011Jul 2211:38AM ETEmailPrintComments
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One handicapper has taken a hard look at Eli Manning and the Giants.
I think it's appropriate, when it's so hot outside tree bark is wilting, that the owners and the players are making us sweat the end of the lockout.
For days they have been teasing us with their positive vibes and strategic leaks about salary caps and the schedule for free agency. And yet on Thursday night, at the moment we thought it would all end, the owners approved the proposal and the players gave them the Dikembe (I know, I'm mixing my sports metaphors. But until I stop seeing an endless SportsCenter loop of bearded offensive linemen wearing shirts that are too tight walking in and out of office buildings, I'm locking out football imagery. By the way, if you ever needed proof as to why O-linemen are sportswriters' favorite sources, look no further than the bargaining table. Those guys have all the brains.)
Earlier this week, as we were lulled into thinking things were hunky dory in labor-land, I began reporting this NFL-specific column. I wanted to know where the money was starting to flow in Vegas with a resolution in sight and where wiseguys think there might be extra value as soon as bookmakers post season win totals. Even though we might still be days away, I'm writing the column anyway.
That's because the flow has begun. I spoke with John Avello of the Wynn on Thursday night, and he said his book had seen more action than in the previous few days (with the most tickets for Super Bowl winner coming in on Detroit, Tampa Bay and Houston). I know the Hilton is buckling down for the free agency frenzy so it can get its season win totals up as soon as possible.
Meanwhile, analysts and handicappers whose lives center around action on The Strip are in a race to finish their preliminary predictions. I promise you that, quicker than Paris Hilton can walk out of an interview, wiseguys will be ready to bet the second the NFLPA accepts a deal. Season win totals go up, they'll get hit. Week 1 lines get posted worldwide (not just in a few spots), and they'll get batted around like a wiffle ball (football metaphor lockout remains in effect). You, meanwhile, as the great Fezzik says, "Will pay a premium to make the same bets we do because recreational bettors wait. They have jobs and lives and families and won't think about the games until the Friday or Saturday before. It's always amazing to me that fantasy leaguers will spend hours thinking about their rosters for a $20 league but will make a $100 bet at the last minute."
He's right. One of these days I am going to write a list of wiseguy rules we all should follow. At the top of it would be, "Don't wait 'til Saturday if you have an opinion on Monday." If you are not playing to get the best of the number, you are not making sound investments you're just gambling.
Anyway, I'm actually glad the players are going to drag this thing out, because it gives me a chance to tell you exactly what you should be looking for. Many moons ago I wrote about how the sharpest sharps are playing Week 1 unders wherever they can find them. The longer this lockout lasts, the less chemistry NFL offenses have time to build and the more they will look like Goldie Hawn's Wildcats that opening week. When I spoke with Fezzik on Thursday afternoon, I asked him about his thoughts on season-win totals. He didn't hesitate. "I have them all done already, ask me about any team."
"All 32?" I asked.
"No, I can't give away everything. Do five."
I started with the Packers. "Packers should be at 11, highest in the NFL," he said. "If anything I favor the over slightly."
Then it was the Bears, because I love them in spite of Jay Cutler. "Bears are 8.5, they do get one road game in London, but that is a mixed blessing," Fezzik said. "Lots of travel but only seven true road games."
I moved onto the Lions, because they are one of those teams everyone thinks will make the leap. Says Fezzik: "The correct number is 7.9. It's interesting how everyone wants to bet the Lions over. Right before kickoff there will be a feeding frenzy on them."
Next up was last year's pre-season darling, the Chiefs. "Certain to regress," says Fezzik. "Probably put them around the Lions at a smidge under eight. Every time a team overachieves and makes playoffs they typically fall back."
Finally, the 2010 surprise, the Bucs. "This is a great one. I was fighting with someone about this yesterday. I think they will go below 500. At the end of year they played Seattle, which mailed it in, and then the Saints, who pulled starters. All of their stats are skewed because they got a walk in 16 and 17. One eighth of the season is bogus. I think they are more 8-8 than 10-6. I will set the number at 8, and I am right."
The bet that didn't interest Fezzik at all was odds to win the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, the real opportunity in those bets, the ones that make people sweat like cheese in a heat wave, are long gone. Once upon a time you could get a bottom dwelling team at 250-1. Then the Rams went and won the Super Bowl 12 years ago as, well, 250-1 long shots, and since then bookmakers like to limit their liability. "The truth is," says Avello, "the bottom team is capable of winning it all."
That's why the Lions are such a hot ticket right now, not just at The Wynn, but at the Hilton, too. "We opened them at 50-1, then moved to 40, and now we are at 30," says Hilton boss Jay Kornegay.
Let's not get crazy, though. We're still talking about the Lions. The Packers, Jets and Cowboys still have more bets than Detroit does. And no one on the Hilton board has gotten as much attention as the Colts. That's not all that different than what's happening offshore at Betonline.com, which had early money on the Cowboys and Packers and recent money on the Colts.
But where can you find some value, before it disappears in a haze of free agent signings? These are some tips I was able to pry out of The Sports Boss, the MBA-trained finance whiz who moonlights as a handicapper.
Jets at 14-1: "I had them as the fourth-best performing squad on the season, 15th on offense and 3rd on defense. When I look a little deeper, Sanchez is their only weak link. They are solid running the rock and top eight in every major category. Good with time of possession. Great on defense. They struggle in yards per attempt, completion percentage, attempts, all the passing metrics. But I do see Sanchez getting better."
Saints at 15-1: "In my model I project them as having the third most wins out of anybody. Their lack of a running game stands out, but I think that will be corrected with Ingram. Mostly though, I think their turnover margin will regress to the mean. In 2010 the Saints were 17 worse in TO margin from their championship year. They should pick up 10-12 in TO margin and that will help them."
Giants at 18-1: "I had them ranked one slot higher than the Jets at the end of last season, third best performing team in the NFL (My order was San Diego, Pittsburgh, Giants, Jets, Packers). They were the second best offense, seventh best defense. And when I ran my projected wins model for this year they finished with the fifth best record. Their only problem was INTs, but if they tighten things up&"
Vikings 35-1: "I know it's crazy but I kind of like them this year. What really stands out last year is the poor play from Favre. They were 27th in yards per attempt and 32nd in INTs and 30th in QB rating. I might be crazy but you know they have a great run D and their TO margin was minus-11, only two teams were worse. That is a number we see time and time again reverting back to the mean."
Eventually, he means. Sometime after the heat wave and lockout end.
