I may go bet MORE now on Tulsa....... The contrarian argument of course is that after Tulsa closes -9 and pounds this team 40-21, we could go into our time machine and argue that 'surely' Tulsa +4.5 LAST YEAR is a good bet......when ECU -4.5 was actually the nuts.
1. Tulsa. Todd Graham. Good Coach. Tradition of winning and going to Bowls. Makes them a MISSION Team. These teams POUND bad teams week1 traditionally. 14 starters back, qb back, stable coaching staff back for year 4, all systems go. High total, good for the favorite.
2007/8/9:
@Monroe 35-17
@tulane 49-25
@army 49-39
@rice 48-43
@UAB 45-22
@ ntex 56-26
@SMU 37-31
@tulane 37-13
@nmex 44-10
@rice 27-10
@utep 24-28
So, vs. 11 bad teams when playing on the road, 10-1 SU, 8-3 when laying -7.
2. ECU
8 starters back. Somewhat of a fraudulent league champion, won a bunch of close games, great coach in Skip Holtz AND lucky. Was getting +2.5 basically AT HOME in conf. USA championship. 2 years ago won @ Tulsa 24-27 thx to +6 Turnovers, a phony win. Last year, pounding the wounded Tulsa squad 44-17. It's payback time. New Head Coach. Very likely to flop completely. Installing an 'air raid' spread offense of Texas Tech without the personell. AND they lose their good qb.
Power ratings: Tulsa is 12 points better, the HFA won't be strong for an ECU team used to excellence, boo birds may be out by the 2nd half. Situation: Favorable.
Double Revenge: FOR TUlsa. VERY favorable given the circumstances.
HUGE coach advantage: VERY favorable. ECU goes from a top tier coach to a likely bad coach. Maybe a really bad coach.
The "but look at last year!" argument is a poor one in college football. Ask Ball State about this, hosting what was (and still kind of was) a POS N Tex team. IN 2008, Ball st would be -31. In 2009 they opened -22, closed -16, and, well, when you only score 10 you don't cover -22, -20 or -16.
If you want to make a case for ECU after Billy bombs Tulsa, and you take them +10.5, ok we can have a debate. At +7 it's 'solve by inspection' time.
Take a look what happended to teams like Ball STate and New Mexico last year........the same fate awaits ECU this year. I would be SHOCKED if ECU winds up in the top 100 of anyone's power ratings by year-end. AND they are likely to improve DURING THE YEAR.
