21-0 ATS System Active Again Monday Here is our write-up from the Giants game on Thursday:
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5-Star NY Giants -1.5 at CAROLINA – The only thing that the Panthers have done this season is to beat the Saints at home and it sure looks like the oddsmakers have overestimated the Saints the season. While the Giants have not looked like the Superbowl champs so far this season, they are off a game that should get them untracked. We’re getting the much better team here, so we’ll lay the 1.5.
NY is 10-0 ATS (+8.9 ppg) as far back as we can check when the line is within 3 of pick on the road vs a team that has averaged at least 365 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The last time the Giants were in this spot was this February, when they won the Superbowl over the Patriots. The SDQL is:
team=Giants and A and -3=365
In addition, the Giants are 9-0 ATS (+9.2 ppg) when the line is within 3 of pick on the road after they scored at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average, 10-0 ATS (+12.8 ppg) when they are off a home win that got them to 500 on the season and a compelling 9-0 ATS on the road the week after a straight up win as a favorite in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average covering by an average of 14.8 ppg. The last time they were in this spot they whomped the Packers in last season’s divisional playoffs.
On the road is where the Giants’ fierceness and toughness come out. They adopt an us-against them mentality and play some smashmouth football. This attitude will be heightened even more because some of their key players are injured.
Here are another two character-revealing trends of the Giants. The G-men are 8-0 ATS (+12.5 ppg) as a road favorite when they played at home in each of the previous two weeks and 8-0 ATS (+7.9 ppg) when the line is within 3 of pick on the road versus any team with the same record.
We’re not done yet. The Giants dominated most stats (FDs, total yards, time of possession) vs the Bucs last week. However, they were 0-2 in goal-to-go situations and 1-5 inside the Bucs’ red zone. This is a strong play-on spot for the Giants. They are 18-0 ATS on the road when they are off a win in which they failed on at least one goal-to-go, as line as the line in that win was within 8 points of pickem. The SDQL text is:
team=Giants and p:GTGF>0 and A and p:W and -8180 and season>=1992
Note that teams have covered by an average of 11.4 ppg in this spot and it is active in one other game this week.
Against Carolina, we have the fact that they are 0-8 ATS when they are off a win by more than a field goal in which the line was within three-points of pickem and they were ahead after the third quarter – and 0-14-1 ATS – as long as they did not the game lose by more than a TD. The SDQL for the 0-14-1 situation is:
0-7 and 20060122
