269/270 Balt/CARO OVER 34.5 2 weight

269/270 Balt/CARO OVER 34.5 2 weight Best bet on the board I believe......

Number has moved Many shops now show this at 35.5 or 36. There looks to be a few 34.5's still out there. The syndicate has spoken.

I will try to give a synopsis of our "over" bet on Balt/Car. Believe it or not, Carolina looks like an "over" team heading into the regular season. Despite John Fox'conservative style, the team will be forced to win most of its games with their offense.They have already had three devastating injuries to key defensive starters. Because they had to give Julian Peppers a salary of 18 MM (14% of the team's cap space),they have no salary room to pick up quality replacements ot free agents.Last year, they allowed at least 30 pts in 5 of their last 7 games.In their last 6 preseason matchups, the over has cashed in each game with the exception of the "throw-away" game versus Pittsburgh in week four of the 2008 preseason. The Panthers possess two rb's with breakaway speed (Deangelo Williams and rookie Mike Goodson). They may be able to break a long run versus the aggressive pursuit of the Ravens' defense. When making this play, I am assuming that Baltimore will score at least 7 points from a Carolina turnover.This assumption is supported by the fact that Carolina has had 10 fumbles and 1 int in their first two preseason games.The Ravens have scored 23 and 24 pts in their first two preseason games.The defense scored two tds in their contest versus the Jets. We also played the Jets/NYG under 37 earlier in the week. This is an annual preseason matchup and is almost an "automatic" play on the under each year for me.It is one of the few matchups where you will witness defensive intensity because both teams (and especially their fans)want to maintain "bragging" rights.This opinion is supported by the fact that the "under" has cashed in the last 8 preseason matchups.In fact, only one of the last 5 contests has reached 30 total points.Early weather reports from Monday indicated that the tropical storm should hit New york by Saturday.I expect that the total will drop by kickoff tomorrow night. Good luck, charliej

I dont know if it has any significance to you, but historically has teams that played on Monday night and then travels to an away game played very low scoring Preseason games - under tickets have cashed at a rate of 2-1. Also these teams are not used to let everything open in week 3. I'm on the under in this game - allthough I am glad that 35 and 36 are pretty dead numbers, after I have seen the line move this much in the last couple of hours. I also played the under in giants/jets when the line was released. It dropped yesterday, but is now almost back to where it started at 37, which is a very important number in preseason if you want to bet the under here.

To charliej - Thanks for the explaination. Just out of curiousity, who are you referring to when you say "our" and "we"? Thanks again.

I am referring to Fezz and I. We have worked together on totals for the past six years (I don't handicap sides in any sport). charliej

Thats what I thought. Thanks again for the explaination.

Superscrub: Thanks for the info regarding "post Monday Night" unders. Even though I use scheduling dynamics as a key variable when handicapping regular season totals, I don't use them when handicapping the preseason. The main reason is that teams use nearly 80 players in a preseason game and even slightly injured players won't suit up in a meaningless contest. I just checked my data base and see that the "over" is 8-2 (for the past two preseasons)for teams playing the week after a Monday night contest. On Monday, August 17 of this year,we had Jax/Miami and Car/NYG playing.The following week, Jax played over,Car played over, Miami played over and NYG played under. In 2008, we had 3 Monday night contests. On August 11, Cincy played GB. The following week, Cincy played over and GB played over. On August 18 Clev played NYG. The following week, Clev played under and NYG played over. On August 25, Sea played SD. Even though each team had only 3 days rest, Seattle played over and San Diego played over in week four. Perhaps this system was effective in the past. However, it has gone 2-8 in the last two preseasons. Since we bet over 34 on this contest,we will be happy with a final score of 21-14 so you can cash your under 36 ticket. best regards, charliej

Actually its only teams going on the road after a monday night game. I found the play by coincidence, which said it won about 66% of the time. I checked it with my own database, that goes back to 2004, and had 14 games, that went 10-4 under - this includes 2008. This year I played Chicago/giants under 36 and it cashed. I might have stayed away from another game in week two, as week two is what I would call an over week. But this week I am on Carolina/Baltimore under - actually bought it at 34.5 as I was afraid it might fall to 34 jets/giants does not really qualify as it's not a real away game for jets, but a lot of other signs said under for this matchup)

I have found that some of the best threads have occurred when two parties give opposite opinions on the same game. On many other sites,there is the usual name-calling and personal attacks on the other person's Stanford-Binet score.It is nice to break down a game and have two parties on the opposite side of a bet without any disparaging comments.It shows that there are many different ways to handicap any football matchup. During preseason, I put the highest weight on matchups and coaching strategy.It is the most "subjective" handicapping that I do in any sport.During the regular season, I will rely most heavily on the number that I make for the game.I don't make a weighted total on a preseason game but will try to grab key numbers such as 37,41 and 34 before making a bet.Once the regular season starts, I will rely on my number,scheduling dynamics,fundamental matchups, and technical factors. I look forward to your future posts,Superskrub. It will be interesting to see how we do when we are the same side of a bet (like the Jets/NYG under 37). Best wishes for the upcoming season. charliej P.S. It is about 2:15 pm in Vegas right now. What time is it in your country?