[QUOTE=pistolpete21;8170]I'm done playing totals on Monday nights. They're over fests, as if they're planned. I'm not fighting the trend any longer. GL to you, Fezz.[/QUOTE]
Without regard to tonight's outcome, and with no disrespect intended, that's a terrible approach to handicapping.
There are no trends in sports betting. There are only lines and chances.
Any bet can be good with the right line, and the same bet bad with a different line.
If you really think the games are overfests, bet over. That isn't complicated.
What happens is people make some under bets, or over bets, some fave bets or dog bets, and if they win they say "yeah!" and keep doing it, and if they lose they say "fuck," and stop doing it ... all in emotional response to the outcome, instead of analysis of the probabilities.
Like people who got all excited betting faves the past few weekends, thinking, of the little pattern that had developed, that there'd been a tremendous change in the very nature of NFL betting and that all they had to do was keep betting the big faves and that they were on the road to easy money.
In reality, it was a little variance in a small sample with no real meaning. As is MNF overfests.
Reacting to small-sample variances is the death-knell in this business.
Know what it means when a roulette wheel comes up red 7 times in 10 spins?
Nothing.
