304 SAINTS -3.5, 1 weight

Poor humor [QUOTE=Sixth Sense;15352]What does me being a GB fan have to do with the fact Minnesota has struggled on the road? Remember, I had Minnesota over GB in that Monday night game. And, I am NOT saying NO is the side here. I think the game could go either way. Just don't see it as clearly as some do.[/QUOTE] was just trying to lighten the subject up a little. Im not advocating a Minn side here, just trying to point out that the NO offense produce a lot of points and yardage vs clearly inferior defenses. Not sure they are as good as everybody thinks they are. We will see.

Having read all the posts on this game both on this and other boards, the one thing for sure is there is a distinct difference of opinion as between sharp players. When this happens I like to look at QB's and coaches. Brees is more disciplined and less likely to give the ball up. Favre is a legend who can often perform magic on the field. Sean Payton is sharper than Brad Childress. Games like this, with nothing even close to a consensus amongst sharp players, often play out very close to the line. I lean to the Saints; for me, the play is to find the cheapest moneyline on them and play it. I found -175 at the Wynn yesterday and took it. I'll come back with a saver on the Vikes if they get back to +4. Should be a great game to watch.

Funny, I keep looking at this thread waiting for a blow up that I'm gonna have to step into. But, for the most part, it's been civil. I hope it can stay that way. And by the way, Saints are gonna pound 'em.

[QUOTE=anthony;15370]Funny, I keep looking at this thread waiting for a blow up that I'm gonna have to step into. But, for the most part, it's been civil. I hope it can stay that way. And by the way, Saints are gonna pound 'em.[/QUOTE]the one thing i hate about forums is bashing---thanks for keeping things proper

[QUOTE=gaslamp;15369]Having read all the posts on this game both on this and other boards, the one thing for sure is there is a distinct difference of opinion as between sharp players. When this happens I like to look at QB's and coaches. Brees is more disciplined and less likely to give the ball up. Favre is a legend who can often perform magic on the field. Sean Payton is sharper than Brad Childress. Games like this, with nothing even close to a consensus amongst sharp players, often play out very close to the line. I lean to the Saints; for me, the play is to find the cheapest moneyline on them and play it. I found -175 at the Wynn yesterday and took it. I'll come back with a saver on the Vikes if they get back to +4. Should be a great game to watch.[/QUOTE] Brees has more Int than Favre. NO INT rate is 2.2. Min INT rate is 1.3. Favre's INT % is the LOWEST in the league this year, and Favre's INT rate for 2009/2010 is one of the lowest in the entire history of the NFL. Of course, anything can happen. But, based on what he has done with this set of players this year, Favre figures to have fewer INTs than Brees. Still, I favor NO by 3 points. They have a great QB, and are at home. A tiny edge for Min +4 IMO.

There you go confusing things with actual facts!! Seriously, I don't think that 2009 interception stat changes my opinion too much. I was thinking more than just INT's, but the likelihood of fumbling or having the throwing arm hacked and losing it that way. It seems to me that much older QB's are more susceptible to that than younger guys. OS, I'd be curious if your numbers include any more of a HFA in the playoffs than reg season? I think HFA in postseason ought to be worth at least an extra point, if not more in a dome.

[QUOTE=Old School;15392]Brees has more Int than Favre. NO INT rate is 2.2. Min INT rate is 1.3. Favre's INT % is the LOWEST in the league this year, and Favre's INT rate for 2009/2010 is one of the lowest in the entire history of the NFL. Of course, anything can happen. But, based on what he has done with this set of players this year, Favre figures to have fewer INTs than Brees. Still, I favor NO by 3 points. They have a great QB, and are at home. A tiny edge for Min +4 IMO.[/QUOTE] Also interested in how you handicap for Min's obvious worse production on the road vs. at home. When a team is as night/day as Min is home/road, I think you'd be foolish to merely include YTD stats, the best of which were accumulated at home. For instance, at Home the Viks throw 143 passes to each interception, far and away #1 in the NFL. But on the road they throw 54 passes to each interception, almost 3 times worse, though still good for 5th in the NFL. The Saints at home throw 67 passes to each int, which is better than Farve on the road this year, and 4th in the NFL. I don't think ignoring the change/drop in Min's road vs. home performance is wise. Not saying they can't cover or win, but addressing the facts of their performances on the road.

how much of this is grass vs turf, as opposed to home vs road? because the game will be in a dome, even if it is a road game for minnesota. and then all this is already in the line. there are easier games to cap. I will be doing them.

For some games the Books just get it right and this is probably one of those. Saints win either 27-24, or 28-24.

I respect many of the posters here but no one has mentioned what the key to this game is. Here's what the key to this and almost every NFL big match up is. Who can run the football the best will win the game. Given the two run offenses and defenses I have to give the Vikings the edge here. The Vikings front four is a little banged up but I expect them to have another big performance against the Saints off line. Both teams got the bye and the rest both needed so I would not look at how both finished when handicapping this game. The Saints do have a nice advantage on special teams remember Bush returned tow punts for TD's against the Vikes last year on MNF a game the Vikes still won with Ferotte at QB. All this said I expect a close game that go's under the total so getting the Vikes at 4.5 and 4 was the key here.