304 SAINTS -3.5, 1 weight

"Cashing" [QUOTE=Calsport;15358]Another loser from the Old School. Texas, Balt keep it going! New Orleans defense in the dome is better than Minnys away from theirs. Keep giving out bad info and losing. Squares like me and Fez will just keep cashing![/QUOTE] Didn't know what the benefit would really be hanging out here but some things are hard to describe that have been truly valuable. This is an example..trying to completely turn the square corner for a long time(18 yrs.) and i think it has finally happened. The analogy above here is perfect, but hard describe. GL

[QUOTE=gaslamp;15399]For some games the Books just get it right and this is probably one of those. Saints win either 27-24, or 28-24.[/QUOTE] We bet Min at 4 1/2 with two locals, so either score would be great (putting aside the Min SB bet!).

[QUOTE=gaslamp;15395]There you go confusing things with actual facts!! Seriously, I don't think that 2009 interception stat changes my opinion too much. I was thinking more than just INT's, but the likelihood of fumbling or having the throwing arm hacked and losing it that way. It seems to me that much older QB's are more susceptible to that than younger guys. OS, I'd be curious if your numbers include any more of a HFA in the playoffs than reg season? I think HFA in postseason ought to be worth at least an extra point, if not more in a dome.[/QUOTE] No, I just give the home team 3 points in the playoffs. I see NO additional value in the home teams since 2003. No advantage for dome teams in this round. Min is also a dome team. As Min has a much better pass rush than NO, I think Min is more likely to cause a fumble from Brees.

[QUOTE=IceTea;15397]Also interested in how you handicap for Min's obvious worse production on the road vs. at home. When a team is as night/day as Min is home/road, I think you'd be foolish to merely include YTD stats, the best of which were accumulated at home. For instance, at Home the Viks throw 143 passes to each interception, far and away #1 in the NFL. But on the road they throw 54 passes to each interception, almost 3 times worse, though still good for 5th in the NFL. The Saints at home throw 67 passes to each int, which is better than Farve on the road this year, and 4th in the NFL. I don't think ignoring the change/drop in Min's road vs. home performance is wise. Not saying they can't cover or win, but addressing the facts of their performances on the road.[/QUOTE] Favre only threw 7 INTs all year. You make good points about Min being much better at home, but I look for the Min defense to make the diference. I would LOVE Min -3 at Min (meaning it might be a 55% bet, rather than a 53% bet). A big NO win would certainly not surprise me, but I think it is slightly -EV (based mainly on their defenses). Plus, I admit it, I'm rooting for the old guy no one loves.

[QUOTE=Calsport;15358]Another loser from the Old School. Texas, Balt keep it going! New Orleans defense in the dome is better than Minnys away from theirs. Keep giving out bad info and losing. Squares like me and Fez will just keep cashing![/QUOTE] We bet 2 units on Alabama, which I posted here (and took plently of grief for). If 75% + of my friends are on Min, I will bet NO and post the 2 unit play, given enough time.

How am I doing when going against Fezzik? Something like 2-15!!!

[QUOTE=Old School;15353]I just don't get this AT ALL. I can't compare how NO and MIN did vs the same team (one of the hottest, a physical team, with a good passing and a good rushing offense) in recent games where the teams were giving it their best effort? Neither Min nor NO faced a lot of games vs playoff teams. The Dallas games were recent (thus giving an indication of current form) and clearly both NO and MIN were giving it 100% in their games vs Dallas. Two "COMPLETELY different environments"? If you cannot compare those two games, you cannot compare ANY games!!! BTW, I have NO as a 3 point favorite, and we bet Min +4 1/2 with locals (God bless them!). +4 -115 at Greek. I think this closes at 3. Most of the SB winners have a top 10 defense (9 of last 10). Neither IND nor NO has a top 10 defense. Squares look first to offense, and they often overlook defense. HOWEVER, the edge here is small, as it is in ALL NFL sides. TOs will probably be crucial in determining the ATS winner, and it's extremely hard tp predect those. In all honesty, we may give up betting NFL sides, and concentrate on NFL totals, both team totals, first half, and full game totals.[/QUOTE] If you want to use your argument I think you also need to use the Arizona/Minnesota match up. Minnesota lost badly at Arizona (never in the game after their early lead). Arizona was destroyed at NO. I see this example very similar to the Dallas/Minnesota example, only NO is home in both of my scenarios and Minnesota is on the road in my scenario. Also, good chance points won't mean anything in this game. Since the merger, when the line is less than 10 points, the SU winner is 65-0-2 ATS in the Conference Championship game.

[QUOTE=Sixth Sense;15426]If you want to use your argument I think you also need to use the Arizona/Minnesota match up. Minnesota lost badly at Arizona (never in the game after their early lead). Arizona was destroyed at NO. I see this example very similar to the Dallas/Minnesota example, only NO is home in both of my scenarios and Minnesota is on the road in my scenario. Also, good chance points won't mean anything in this game. Since the merger, when the line is less than 10 points, the SU winner is 65-0-2 ATS in the Conference Championship game.[/QUOTE] I already went over this. Min was 10-1 when they faced Ari (who needed to win to keep off SF) on MN. A HUGE situational edge for Ari. The reason their games vs Dallas is such a good comparison is that the games were recent, and all the teams were "up". Like I already said, apples and oranges. We won those two "ties" by shopping. Hope our +4 1/2 cashes here. At any rate, dogs have been winning SU in recent years.

Teams with a top 10 defense have been winning in the SBs (9 of last ten). Min qualifies, Ind and NO do not.

[QUOTE=Old School;15437]I already went over this. Min was 10-1 when they faced Ari (who needed to win to keep off SF) on MN. A HUGE situational edge for Ari. The reason their games vs Dallas is such a good comparison is that the games were recent, and all the teams were "up". Like I already said, apples and oranges. We won those two "ties" by shopping. Hope our +4 1/2 cashes here. At any rate, dogs have been winning SU in recent years.[/QUOTE] We'll agree to disagree on this. It's not apples and oranges that they are playing at different sites? Minnesota didn't "need" that game against Arizona? The situations were also in Minnesota's favor last week. BTW, the better defense in these games, defined simply as the one allowing less points per game during the regular season, is 50-25-1 ATS, which points to Minnesota and the Jets so you do have that going for you. How are you ranking Indy's defense? They are definitely a top ten defense. In points allowed, they are in the top ten. Up until their last game, they were allowing 4.9 yards per play against teams averaging 5.4 yards per play. Not only are they a top ten defense, I think their defense is very underrated. Not saying it is better than the Jets but it is still very good.