304 SAINTS -3.5, 1 weight

[QUOTE=Sixth Sense;15446]We'll agree to disagree on this. It's not apples and oranges that they are playing at different sites? Minnesota didn't "need" that game against Arizona? The situations were also in Minnesota's favor last week. BTW, the better defense in these games, defined simply as the one allowing less points per game during the regular season, is 50-25-1 ATS, which points to Minnesota and the Jets so you do have that going for you. How are you ranking Indy's defense? They are definitely a top ten defense. In points allowed, they are in the top ten. Up until their last game, they were allowing 4.9 yards per play against teams averaging 5.4 yards per play. Not only are they a top ten defense, I think their defense is very underrated. Not saying it is better than the Jets but it is still very good.[/QUOTE] I'm just using ypg to rate the defenses; nothing as fancy as the sharps here. Lots of stats. As far as the stat about the SU winner always winning the PS, they USED to msay the same thing about the super bowl 15 years ago. Some say the same about ALL NFL games. Yes, I'll be on the NYJ.

[QUOTE=Sixth Sense;15446]We'll agree to disagree on this. It's not apples and oranges that they are playing at different sites? Minnesota didn't "need" that game against Arizona? The situations were also in Minnesota's favor last week. BTW, the better defense in these games, defined simply as the one allowing less points per game during the regular season, is 50-25-1 ATS, which points to Minnesota and the Jets so you do have that going for you. How are you ranking Indy's defense? They are definitely a top ten defense. In points allowed, they are in the top ten. Up until their last game, they were allowing 4.9 yards per play against teams averaging 5.4 yards per play. Not only are they a top ten defense, I think their defense is very underrated. Not saying it is better than the Jets but it is still very good.[/QUOTE] No Min did not "need" that game vs Ari; they were 10-1 and a cinch for the playoffs. Ari needed to win to hold off SF. For those of you that use scoring to determine defense and who stress the home/away stats, you just HAVE to be on the NYJ at +7 1/2. The NYJ's average away score: 23-15, 7-3 ATS. Ind's average home score: 23-18, 4-5 ATS.

[QUOTE=Old School;15453]No Min did not "need" that game vs Ari; they were 10-1 and a cinch for the playoffs. Ari needed to win to hold off SF. For those of you that use scoring to determine defense and who stress the home/away stats, you just HAVE to be on the NYJ at +7 1/2. The NYJ's average away score: 23-15, 7-3 ATS. Ind's average home score: 23-18, 4-5 ATS.[/QUOTE] You don't think Minnesota would rather be playing that game here this week than NO? I live in Mpls and I can tell you they had their sights set on the #1 seed and that was lost with that game.

OS do you take into account that NO has gotten a couple of injured defensive players backlast week? And looked good last week?

[QUOTE=JohnnyGun;15468]OS do you take into account that NO has gotten a couple of injured defensive players backlast week? And looked good last week?[/QUOTE] Yes and yes. The more I look at it, the less I like it. Picking sides in the NFL is close to a total coin-flip IMO.

After 7 pages here at LVA we are still arguing about the 'right side' of this game. It's obviously fairly lined. /thread

[QUOTE=Old School;15502]Yes and yes. The more I look at it, the less I like it. Picking sides in the NFL is close to a total coin-flip IMO.[/QUOTE] Agreed for the most part of course. The less you like their defense?

[QUOTE=Rumpelstiltskin;15505]After 7 pages here at LVA we are still arguing about the 'right side' of this game. It's obviously fairly lined. /thread[/QUOTE] Same thing I was thinking.

[QUOTE=JohnnyGun;15507]Agreed for the most part of course. The less you like their defense?[/QUOTE] No the less I like my posted play at +4 -115. Others gave many good arguments for NO, and my 2-15 record on plays opposing Fezzik HAS to concern me. Given that 2-15 record, I'm sure Fezzik is very happy I'm on Min. Our bet at +4 1/2 -110 with two locals is still +EV IMO. Sides at current sharp numbers almost impossible to beat. Totals a little easier to beat. Last week we won our Ind under team total despite IND being +3 in TOs. It's virtually impossible to beat a team that is +3 in TOs.

Saints -3.5 Vikes are a different (and lesser) team on the road. They didn't post any quality road wins on this year's schedule. In fact, they got spanked at Pittsburg, at Arizona, at Carolina and at Chicago. Several of those road losses you could call embarrasing. The Saints are a different (and improved) team at home, and in the playoffs. I got in at -3.5 yesterday at a Mexican sports book. Went down to -3 this morning, and is now back up to -4.