49'ers/Saints

49'ers/Saints 49'ers lost only one game by more than 3 all year and to me this is a great matchup for them....San Fran plays the old school smash mouth football run the ball and stop the run that tends to slow down these high powered offenses...Everyone knows the Saints do not play that well away from home with losses to the Rams and Bucs and this is the first west coast trip for them all yr...The 49'ers have the number one rush offense in football and with that defense, two weeks off and + 3.5 I am all over the home team...I have placed my bet but will add to it if I see +4... This team reminds me of the Bucs that won the superbowl in 03...Id love to here what Fez thinks...Ok Skeeter have at it

Unfortunately, the weather will be boring: 62 and not that windy. It hasn't rained measurably in weeks, and it won't this week either. SF sure seems to be the sharp side, though.

Doesn't this game seem like the culmination of the the new school NFL and old school NFL? SF= tough stubborn coach, pound the run on offense, conservative game plan, good special teams, hard nosed swarming defense focused on stopping the run and getting turnovers. This team does remind me of the TB bucs, or Balt Ravens in early 2000s, or Chicago Bears of 07. New Orleans = pass happy new school offense, with an aggressive blitzing D susceptible to big plays (New Orleans D gave up 14 plays of 40+ yds leading the NFL). New Orleans attempted 662 passes on offense and SF attempted 451. Some interesting stats in this matchup: SF Off Rushing vs NO rushing D. NO rush D gives up 4.95 per attempt (2nd to last in the NFL) and SF likes to run. SF Off 3rd down conversion rate is a terrible 29% conversion rate and NO D is great at stopping teams on 3rd down (33%) NO Off Rushing vs SF D. New Orleans surprising ran for 4.93 per attempt in the regular season and SF D was #1 vs the run giving up 3.5 per attempt NO Off 3rd down conversion rate is an unheard of 57% and SF D is at 35%. my power rankings have SF (-1) but I understand the line at NO (-3.5) mostly due to New Orleans amazing 8-0 run ATS and and 13-4 ATS YTD. I agree with you and think the old school SF team slows down the Saints at home and wins this outright even though saying that means you have to swallow some vomit and back Alex Smith over Drew Brees.

Great analysis and stats. I think a lot of sharp bettors are on the 49ers. But I've been out here enough to know that +3.5 isn't going to cut it. You can see the +4 already coming up at various spots in Nevada and select "square" shops offshore. I had bet the 49ers but I've "fixed" that now by betting the Saints moneyline. I expect to be back into the 49ers at game time but I'm hoping for +5 or +4.5 reduced. I don't think +6 could ever show but the key thing here is +3.5 is no good. Now who actually wins this game is a different story but I will give you a bet for next year. 49ers under season wins. The 49ers have an outstanding front defensive 7, the OL with the rookies has done a good job, Smith is better, etc. and the kicker and the punter are in the Raiders league of kickers. But I have to be non politically correct and despite beating the Giants, Eagles, Steelers and Detroit I'm not overwhelmed by this team. If they beat New Orleans I will be. If they win this game, I'm wrong. They're really good. NO is a powerhouse. Just like you guys say. Great QB great coach playing with revenge from last season. They've already surprised all kinds of sharp bettors in the second half of the year with these poundings they've put on teams when they've been on the road. T It has somewhat of the looks of one of these games where it is so obvious SF is the right side of this game for value because of NO's record on the road and SF's D but not sure I buy it. I don't like how Gore tailed off the 2nd half of the year. They don't have receivers and Smith's QB rating still isn't that great but the very few TO is impressive. But as Joel said in the other thread not sure I care about their TO rating for one game. If NO goes up 10-0 I firmly believe Smith and the 49ers will be quiite capable of throwing 3 picks. I have no doubt about that. I will want the 49ers at the absolute peak best number and no other. My concern is all of the breaks they've had all year from an easy schedule to playing teams when they were most vulnerable (Pitt Phil Wash) come to mind will set up here for a setback. 49ers +4.5 or better!

great stuff guys....I will wait to see if I can get +4.5 or better I already have my + 3.5

Agree. "If NO goes up" 2-3 scores then Smith out of his element. Question is if Saints do it (if Smith does it) and when. Gotta think Harbaugh tries to shorten game and then reacts if he can't. As such, like un 24 1st half more than anything else, but also hope to get +4.5 and +200 or so ML as/if NO steams. Just don't think they will. Frank B?

I had to settle for the +4. It didn't get any better. I must admit I would have preferred a NO 3 pt win but it still goes in the books as a thread that pimpdaddy started where I either saved or made money. Nice call! Try to have a post on tomorrow's games for when I wake up pimp....

Thanks Skeeter, I always love your post....My local offers a 2 team 7 pt. tease @ -120 so I think I am going to go that way today, I like the Ravens down to a half and I think Im going to stick with G.B. down as well although I think most of the sharps would take the Giants to + 14.5.....I had made a play earlier in the yr on G.B. to win the Super Bowl and I think it is swaying my decision....

That game was epic. The balls Harbaugh showed calling the QB option late in the 4th was awesome. Then after that crushing completion to Jimmy Graham, to not pussyfoot around and kick the tying FG near the end of regulation and make a throw into the end zone to V. Davis for the win. So many coaches just get in FG range in that situation and never go for the kill shot and the win. I'm not sure who to back in NYG vs SF yet but Harbaugh and Smith earned some major respect. The SF offense still sucks on third down (27% for the game and 29% for the season), but when they had to convert in the 4th quarter they did.