Advice, Is this a bad middle

Advice, Is this a bad middle I was just wondering if you would loose money over the long run with this middle. Team A +6.5 Odds +110 Team B -7 Odds +104

Huh? You are kidding right?

[QUOTE=members;3932]Huh? You are kidding right?[/QUOTE] You answered my question. My math skills aren't very good.

a better quesstion -7 +104 +6.5 +110 I say it has + expectation, of maybe 1/2 a penny.

Using a 6% frequency of the 7, while betting $100 on each side, this play should show a 58 cent average profit.

Members, that's an unhelpful reply. For simplicity, let's just suppose you are getting +107 on both sides instead of +110 and +104. The you either lose 100 or win net 7. If you push with probability [I]p[/I] then your expected value is [I]7(1-p) - 100p[/I]. This breaks even when [I]p = 7/107 = 6.5%.[/I] If the actual probability of a push is 6% then you have only a .58% edge. That seems small, but due to the low risk, the Kelly bet exceeds 8% of bankroll.

KImLee "but due to the low risk" Can you explain the risk to me?

I get the point, but realistically -- could lose ticket, second side could move before completing the tandem, book could go down or refuse to pay. Always risk, right?

Yes, but all of those things are present with any bet you make online. So the only "risk" if you want to call it that is the 7. I know guys who bet and NEVER take the available #. Meaning a guy like Fez, Charlie J, Old School or TheDude: who are extremely confidant in their models should not bet WA #s. The very best originators I have seen (who win all the time) use the scroll to get a worse # at a + price. In most instances their "bad number" becomes the correct # but they are taking +1.37 + 1.52 etc etc. I have always said their are many ways to win at this. The example above is for a rare breed indeed.

Thanks for all the answers!