[QUOTE=Pachuca;3989]There are originators who win "all the time?"
Anyway, getting past that nonsense, the scroll (assuming you're talking about the drop-down, alternative-lines), has no inherent usefulness unless you think the books are trading 1/2 points wrong. Which they aren't (although, back in the day, there weren't too smart about the NFL 3).
EVERY SINGLE BET YOU EVER MAKE HAS IT'S OWN EV. And no other bet can change that first bet's EV.
At best, a book should be ambivalent about which number/price any player takes. Meaning, as long as the EV remains the same, the bets are the same, in the long run.
So, explain, please, how someone is going to get an edge using properly-calculated alternative lines?
You're probably going here: you can bet more if the bet will end up risk-free at the end with a buy-back middle/scalp. But that's illusory in the real world.
If you would normally bet 1 unit at the -110 line, but plan on betting 5 units at a big +price/worse spread in anticipation of a line move you'll buy back, your risk is that you'll be wrong on the line move. So you wouldn't be avoiding risk at all.
Not to mention the costs of maxing out accounts with oversized bets (because we can no longer transfer money easily; because books boot, etc).
If there are "originators" doing what your saying, this is what they're really doing: using the steam created by their followers to make money. IOW, they don't have risk of the line not moving the way they need because they're using their influence with schmuck followers to insure it moves that way.
That's a legit tactic from their end, but it isn't a handicapping edge, it's a marketing advantage.[/QUOTE]
Do not agree with just about anything you are saying as you are not responding to what I wrote or you do not understand it.
I talked about originators who make their own lines and are winners. I thought the bettors I used as an example would help, but you may not know their long term success at predicting which way a line will move.
Look at Fez response. Its pretty self explanatory.
Another great example would be Ras or Helmut on their college baskets. Since they are correct in spotting the bad lines and knowing which way the line should move barring injury would it not be smart plus ev to bet more than their normal bet size at a not WA # at plus juice only to take back a plus price after the line move?
As I stated its for a "rare breed" but they do exist-I have seen it. It happens right on this board-just look at Fezzik release points. Again, pretty east to "get it".
Also, your point on betting bad #s posted at a book is not at all what I was talking about. In todays market I know of 3 places with a 4th on the horizon that I can say never kicked out a soul-Pinny, Match, cris and their new exchange.
