AFC Championship: New England @ Denver 301 N Engl 56.5/ +200
302 Denver -5 / ML -240
Rematch of bizarre game played in Foxboro in week 12. Pats fell
behind 17-0 in the 1Q when they turned the ball over on their first
three possessions. At halftime it was 24-0 and looking pretty grim.
In the 2H the Pats scored 5 straight times to take a 31-24 lead. The
Broncos tied it with 3 min to go and the game went to OT where NE
took it in the last two minutes on a 31yd FG. Final NE 34 Den 31
One of the many interesting stories in this game is that the last straw
for coach Beliceck in that game was the third turnover by the Pats.
Already trailing 10-0, a hand-off to L Blount on first down gained 4 yds.
They gave it to him again on third down and he fumbled the ball away
leading to a Denver TD and a 17-0 lead. Blount was in the game because
on the Patriots first possession, S Vereen coughed the ball up. This was
Blounts big chance to get some carries and take the reins as the primary
carrier, at least for the rest of this game. He did rip off a 9 yd gain on
that second carry but fumbled the rock away and that was it for him
for the day. He did not touch the ball again after that. Two carries for
13 yds was good but the fumble was the deal-breaker. It took a few
weeks for the 250 lb back to climb into a prominent role out of the backfield
but he is the main man heading into this game. He hasn't fumbled the
ball away since and his presence has added an element to the offense that
is just not what you expect from a Brady led Patriot team. In the last three
games, Blount has carried the ball 64 times for 431 yds. At the same
time, Brady has attempted 26, 24 and 25 passes and completed just
14, 14 and 13 of them. Very consistent output for Brady in those three
contests but it is a huge downsizing of the pass game vs what had taken
place prior to Blounts emergence. In the previous 5 games Brady had
avged 31.6 comps on 47.6 atts. Pretty much double what the pass game
produced post-Blount. In those 5 games he completed a min of 29 passes
in each and now he has no more then 14 completions with Blount back there.
The commitment to the run (and the transparency of it) is obvious. Although
Blount gained 166yds on 24 carries vs the Colts it wasn't as if he was
dominating the snaps in the backfield. He was only on the field for 26
snaps but when he was out there, he was getting the ball. Carrying the ball
24 times on 26 snaps is probably not a ratio that they'll maintain and it
certainly should set up some nice play-action spots for Brady Sunday.
I made the line on Blount yds 89. When the LVH put up 72.5 I took it
and they moved it to 74.5. A few hours later, had a bit of buyers remorse as
William Hill put up 62.5! I missed that number but got more in at 67.5. It
went as high as 75.5 after that and came down to 72.5. I suspect that was
merely someone closing up a middle shot rather then an anti-Blount bet.
Denver is susceptible to the pass right now and it would be hard to fathom
the Pats just ignoring that and trying to run over the Broncos. With the loss
of top CB Chris Harris, Denver is now down to using Quentin Jammer or
sticking an inexperienced CB out there in a championship game. Neither
option is good. Once Harris left the field and Jammer was in, Keenan Allen
went nuts. Blanked in the 1H with Harris in coverage, he went off for 6 rec,
142 yds and 2 TDs in the 2H vs an outmatched Jammer. The Patriots do not
have a WR with that type of speed and quickness to throw at the Broncos.
Aaron Dobson is the closest thing to that but he is still questionable as of
Saturday. With Edelman and Amendola you have good route runners that
should be able to get clear enough to get catches though and it makes
perfect sense that the Pats will try to go to whomever gets matched vs the
weak link in the secondary. DRC will be on one side but then you have either
an aging Bailey or Jammer or an inexperienced young player on the other.
Have to believe the Pats will try to take advantage of the fill-in for Chris Harris.
Making lines for the players in this game is a little dicey. They can end up
looking pretty bad after the fact if you go the wrong way on the Patriots
run/pass distribution. What I gave a good deal of weight to is the fact that
the weather will be decent and it would be tough to outscore Denver if you
just commit to pounding the rock. Brady has to throw more then he has been.
Even though NE is depleted at the receiving positions I expect a player like
Shane Vereen to get a lot of targets to compensate. He probably has the
most upside of the Pats skill players. Denver is a lot easier to project offensively.
Since the lines in LV did go up in a few spots there are some bets that are
already in and numbers to refer to. So far the biggest position taken was on
L Blount rush yds. Took him OV on rush yds at numbers ranging from 67.5
to 72.5. His line was low IMO. After racking up 24 carries in each of the last
two games for 189 and then 166 yds, I can't imagine anyone looking at a number
in the 60s and thinking they want that bet Under. Just on projected line movement
alone, taking anything near 70 yds OV is probably a good position bet.
Even though I have a real aversion to betting individual players OV, have to
at least consider Shane Vereen OV on receps, rec yds and maybe a combined
rush/rec yds number. Have seen no lines on him yet but the numbers I'm
looking for are OV 3 receps and OV 26 yds rec. Based on his recent output
those numbers may be available. He has caught 2,3,1 and 3 balls his last 4 games.
In the first meet, Vereen caught 8 balls for 60 yds. He should get his share of targets.
At a line of 3 it's a big bet. At 3.5 it's probably a bet. A line of 4 would probably pass.
Seems a little whacked to fade a QB who just set records in multiple categories but
may have to do that with Peyton here. His seasons 1H / 2H splits are worth noting.
In the first half of the season he avged 30 comp per game (med 29.5) and 42 attempts.
In the 2H it has been a median output of 25 comps per game on 38 attempts.
With the possibility of a more run-heavy, clock-churning approach by NE and the
tendency of the public to bet on Manning we may see a comp number around 28.
If so, UN is the play. Last week they hung a 28 in the extreme wind and it was a
comfortable win. This game has a total of 56.5 and good weather. Waiting on this
bet until Sunday is probably the way to go. It may get bet up due to weather.
Will look at other bets as they become available.
