AFC Saturday Wild Card Game: KC @ Indy 101 K.C. 46
102 Indy PK
Using the lines offshore, the game is PK and 46. In Las Vegas the slightly
stale numbers of Ind -1.5 and 46.5 are the most prevalent. Either way,
this game is looked at as a virtual toss-up with action coming in on the
Chiefs the last couple days. These two teams met in game 15 with Indy
winning at KC 23-7. After a game that some think the Chiefs played an
intentionally vanilla offense, the expectation is that the Colts will see
some things they did not have to deal with at Arrowhead. Have to think
it's an overstated dynamic in this game. Since when are the Chiefs anything
but vanilla on offense? When your top WR never once exceeded 70 yds
receiving in a game you aren't exactly reminding anyone of the 1999 Rams.
It is interesting that before the bye the Chiefs went 9-0 with an offense
that avged 23.8 ppg. After the bye they went 2-5 but avged 30.7 ppg.
During the 9 game win streak they never allowed more then 17 pts in
a game but after the break they allowed 23 or more in every game but
one. The transformation from an UN team to an OV team was fast and
extreme. Since the bye the Chiefs games have avged a total 0f 58.4 ppg.
They do get Justin Houston back for this game but I'd have to steer clear of
the UN at the very least and maybe take a shot OV if the line dips below 46.
Houstons sack partner, Tamba Hali (11 each) looks like a game-time decision.
Jamal Charles is KCs one and only explosive player on offense and their
biggest play this season has been the screen pass to him. Charles led the
team in receptions, rec yardage and rec TDs. Clearly the centerpiece of
the offense, the plan is to get the ball in his hands as often as possible.
Anything other then that is not going to work very well. Charles should
rack up close to 100 yards rushing (Indy allows 4.5 ypc) and close to
50 yds receiving. Paydirt is likely and anything -220 or less is definitely
worth considering. Charles had 19 TDs and scored in 12 of 15 games.
That actually works out to a line of -400 if you take that as representative
of his scoring frequency long-term. Temper that quite a bit though and you
get maybe -240 as a line worth considering. I'm probably in at -220 or less.
Alex Smith has put up a 23/7 TD/INT ratio this year and completed 19 or more
passes (avg 21.7) in 11 of the first 12 games of the season. The last three though,
it's been 14, 17, 16. How to handle this is to probably split the difference but I
am nudging it up a bit to 20.5 for Smith and a yardage total of 215.
No receiver on KC (outside of Charles) should be expected to have a big
game. Bowe has not exceeded 70 yds in a game this year and McCluster
it's the same story. Not tough to line these players with such a flat string
of performances. The one receiver that they may get a little too optimistic
with is Donnie Avery. He has been painfully underwhelming this year with
40 catches and only twice exceeding 3. The right line for him is 2.5UN but
if they hang a 3, as they have a number of times this year with him, then
betting UN 3 is a pretty good play. He's gone UN 3 seven times and OV 3
just twice and has been tailing off as the season progressed. A line of 2.5UN
is what I'd hang and let them bet the over all they want. Yardage I make 30.
For the Colts I made the lines on Andrew Luck 24 comps/245 yds and 1.5 TDs.
Donald Brown may get increased touches as vs KC two weeks ago he
avged 7.9 ypc for 79 yds and caught 2 passes for 31 more. 110 all-purpose
yds is his high for the season so they may chase those numbers early and
get the ball in his hands. Anything in the 40s for rush yds is worth at least
considering. The Chiefs allow 4.5 ypc ranking#26 in the NFL. Brown OV
is just a lean though with Trent Richardson also looking for touches vs
this rush defense. It would have to be a pretty good # for Brown (mid 40s)
and have no interest in Richardson except to maybe play UN on rush yds.
Two new receivers have emerged down the stretch for the Colts in Whalen
and Rogers. They have stepped in for the ineffective Heyward-Bey so the
lines I made for this trio of WRs are Bey 1.5UN/17.5, Whalen 3.5/34.5 and
Rogers 3/37.5. They may put something up on Bey that can be bet UN.
He has been pretty much relegated to special teams and would be shocked
if he got more then 2 targets. TY Hilton may be a good fade to score a TD.
Although he has 5, they are all bunched into 2 games. Failing to score in
14 of 16 games but priced at less than -200, the NO is a pretty good deal.
As the line continues to bleed to the KC side it gets closer to being in
Indy teaser range. One book already got there (5Dimes) so hoping to get more.
Indy teasers +7.5 would be a real good leg to pair with the Packers +8.5.
