Alabama -3 .5 vs. Oregon, NCAA Championsip game, who does everyone like?

[QUOTE=Shooter;31170]The SEC defenses are not as dominant as in years past, but keep in mind, they are playing against some good offenses as well. Cam Newton ran all over LSU, but LSU has shutdown everyone else they played. Even if Oregon can score at will, Oregon cannot stop Auburn or Alabama. Plus, especially with Alabama, I would take Saban over Chip Kelly (not that he's bad) any day of the week.[/QUOTE] Oregon is number one in the country in Turnover margin and is one of the fastest defenses in the country. It's important how you measure a defense. If it is based on total nominal yards, then it's hard to make the case, but if you measure in a more apples-to-apples manner, then stats like yards-per-play, turnovers created, points-per-play, red zone defense make Oregon's defense much more compelling. They also play great defense through their offense. Oregon's offense puts pressure on opposing offenses as they know they must score. This is something that is rarely taken into account...

[QUOTE=johnnetto;31224]Oregon is number one in the country in Turnover margin and is one of the fastest defenses in the country. It's important how you measure a defense. If it is based on total nominal yards, then it's hard to make the case, but if you measure in a more apples-to-apples manner, then stats like yards-per-play, turnovers created, points-per-play, red zone defense make Oregon's defense much more compelling. They also play great defense through their offense. Oregon's offense puts pressure on opposing offenses as they know they must score. This is something that is rarely taken into account...[/QUOTE] Right, they create turnovers in large part because the other teams are trying to catch up when behind. On a per play basis i see them giving up 3.6 yards a rush to teams that average 3.6 and 6.2 per pass to teams that average around 6.5. Pretty decent, but not great.

Here's a link to an in depth conversation about Oregon vs. the SEC teams. ;) [URL="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2010/10/28/1779299/sec-guy-calls-95-5-radio-in-oregon"]SEC guy calls oregon radio station[/URL]

[QUOTE=Twoniner;31228]Here's a link to an in depth conversation about Oregon vs. the SEC teams. ;) [URL="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2010/10/28/1779299/sec-guy-calls-95-5-radio-in-oregon"]SEC guy calls oregon radio station[/URL][/QUOTE] It was more like listening to two kids argue in fourth grade...

Parody of an SEC fan. Appears none of the west coast guys figured it out.

[QUOTE=johnnetto;31224] Oregon's offense puts pressure on opposing offenses as they know they must score. [/QUOTE] Then what happens when Oregon's offense is held in check? Oakland had a top five defense statistically when they were favored over Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl, but they were shredded when they weren't spotted a lead.

[QUOTE=OldTime'sSake;31267]Then what happens when Oregon's offense is held in check? Oakland had a top five defense statistically when they were favored over Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl, but they were shredded when they weren't spotted a lead.[/QUOTE] How the Oakland Raiders and Oregon ducks were used as a parallel is something I'm not really certain about. We all know sports and sports betting is unpredictable at times. I'm simply trying to quantify and articulate the reasons as to why I think Oregon can make a strong case for being the best team in the country, and if presented with an opportunity to get points with them, why I would do so... In terms of what happens when Oregon's offense is held in check???I guess their chances of winning decrease... I'm simply making the point that the variables that go into making a great football team are what Oregon possesses, i.e., an explosive offense, points from great special teams play, a defense that forces turnovers, and speed all over the field.

[QUOTE=johnnetto;31282] I'm simply making the point that the variables that go into making a great football team are what Oregon possesses, i.e., an explosive offense, points from great special teams play, a defense that forces turnovers, and speed all over the field.[/QUOTE] Having a great defense is the most important variable and its absence from your list is glaring (forcing turnovers doesn't qualify by itself). As for the other variables, if they were enough the Buffalo Bills would have won several championships in the 90's. All's I'm saying is that Oregon may be great at blowing out mediocre to good competition, but I'm very skeptical about how they'll fair against a top-notch defense. After all, they were gangbusters in the PAC-10 last season, but couldn't convert a 3rd-down against any decent non-conference opponent. 1-10 versus Boise State 3-14 versus Utah 2-11 versus Ohio State

[QUOTE=OldTime'sSake;31292]Having a great defense is the most important variable and its absence from your list is glaring (forcing turnovers doesn't qualify by itself). As for the other variables, if they were enough the Buffalo Bills would have won several championships in the 90's. All's I'm saying is that Oregon may be great at blowing out mediocre to good competition, but I'm very skeptical about how they'll fair against a top-notch defense. After all, they were gangbusters in the PAC-10 last season, but couldn't convert a 3rd-down against any decent non-conference opponent. 1-10 versus Boise State 3-14 versus Utah 2-11 versus Ohio State[/QUOTE] Some of the most important stats I look at focus on who is winning the battle at the line of scrimmage. So any ommission about Oregon having a great defense should not imply I don't think Oregon's Defense is championship caliber. In fact quite the contrary. Their defense has shown an amazing ability to control the line of scrimmage. If you win the battle there, you put yourself in an amazing position to win the game. In Tackles for Loss, possibly the biggest stat to determine how well a team is doing in that regard, Oregon is 9th in the country with almost 8 per game. They rank a very respectable 20th in Sacks, and are second in sacks allowed. These are all crucial b/c the most important down in football is not 3rd down, but first down. First down is what sets the tempo for all of the subsequent plays. Third down conversions are clearly a critical component, but this is a better Oregon Side than last year's squad. Chip Kelly now has a full season and a half under his belt and seems to have taken them to another level of consistency.