Alf M's College and Pro Football Week # 4 Thread Early Plays
[B]116 Indiana +14 -120[/B]......totally getting off this game, laying [B]Michigan -10[/B], watched Akron/IND recently and did not like what I saw. I'm not jumping on Big Blue, hedging completely our IU bet and now hoping for a middle or push/win. I do not bet sides to play middles. I try and get the best opening numbers vs my power ratings, AND also after handicapping the matchup must be interested in that side or against the opponent.
[B]124 Maryland -7 -120[/B]
Many believe the Terps are vulnerable on defense as FIU out gained them and move the chains well. I watched that game and the boxscore will also show that Maryland scored TDs very quickly of 85, 56, 68 and 76 yards. The defense was on the field much longer than the offense.
Duke has shown they cannot stop the run giving up 248 yards on the ground to Army, 315 to Alabama, 229 to Wake Forest and 100+ to Elon. Terp's RB D Scott had 15 carries for 103 yards LW and should shred the Blue Devils defense 5.2 ypc apart.
[B]176 Iowa -6.5 -115[/B]
Iowa won this game in Happy Valley 21-10 LY and now Penn State is much worse than LY's team. Iowa's defense is still intact and I project Penn State will not score more than 14 points. State lost one of their Top OL RT SR Eliades with ACL is out.
[B]186 Oregon -6.5 -115[/B]
Oregon looked average LW vs. Arizona State, but now in Autzen Stadium and seeking revenge for a 42-51 loss in Stanford we expect the Ducks to play their best. Stanford is switching surfaces to field turf for the first time this year. I also did not like their offense LW that was forced to kick 5 FGs.
added
[B]128 Army +4.5[/B]
Temple's Top player RB Bernard Pierce was carted off the field and then on crutches with an ankle injury after the Penn State game. Without him the Owls chances are slim and none. Temple struggled on defense letting RB Royster run for 187 yards. Army will top that number. Temple has no passing game 8-19 for 46 yds LW = advantage Army, we'll ride the Black Knights streak.
[B]166 Toledo -3[/B]
Toledo has improved dramatically since their opening shellacking by Arizona. They have played 3 straight road games and now have a Home Coming game vs. a Wyoming team that got a cover LW against Air Force who was in a sandwich situation as they have Navy this week. Wyoming's offense simply cannot get going only 12 FD LW and 66 yds passing. They'll need to score at least 21 points here to have a chance, not likely.
[B]155 Ohio State -17[/B]
Sometimes when a team goes on the road it's a good thing and the Buckeye's have been chomping at the bit to show their talents elsewhere. This is their first away game and they will travel with their top 60 players not the 85-100 that they can dress for a home game. And with the top squad in the line-up there may not be any letdown.
Illinois almost lost at home to Northern Illinois and has little or no passing game. They will not be able to run on Ohio State who has the best LBs in the Big Ten and give up just 2.6 ypc.
NFL
[B]202 Pittsburgh Steelers -1[/B]
We'll roll with the Steelers here who have done nothing but stop opponents flat. Baltimore finally passed the ball against Cleveland but then their run defense showed major holes as Cleveland RB Peyton Hillis has 2 TDs and 140+ yds. Now the Ravens have INJ problems with RB Ray Rice questionable, DT Cory Redding is very ?? and TE Todd Heap is not 100%. This line looks cheap.
[B]213 NY Jets -4.5[/B]
This line is the biggest gap of all my power rating lines. I'd play the Jets at less that 6 pts. The QB edge is too much to ignore, Fitzpatrick is not the answer. The Jets have the better defense even with Revis out and they rank so much higher than Buffalo who have up 38 to the Patriots while the Jets only surrendered 14.
[B]225 Patriots/Dolphins Over 45[/B]
I knew this line would go up fast and I'm gonna say Over 46.5 is still ok here. The Pats are 3-0 on the Overs. They are a Top 5 offense with a Bottom 10 defense and that = Over. Miami gave up yardage in bunches to the Jets, yet still scored 23 and was on the doorstep to 30+. If Miami can score 23 on the Jets they can manage 28+ vs. the Patriots who gave up 30 to Buffalo!
