Alf M's College Football Week # 11 Early Plays

Alf M's College Football Week # 11 Early Plays [B]360 Northwestern +7.5 -115[/B] NW will start FR QB Watkins, a 6'6" 250 Lb kid with decent mobility and a cannon for an arm, surely he will not fill the shoes of the playmaker and reliable Dan Persa, but HC Pat Fitzgerald raves about the FR and a wonderful opportunity to shine against an in conference state rival at neutral Wrigley Field. Illinois has fallen apart losing B2B games to Michigan and Minnesota. What happened to their defense? Even without Persa I made the line Illinois -4 and would play + a TD or more. [B]394 San Diego State +3[/B] I watched the entire TCU-SDST game and I left impressed with the speed and heart of SDST. They did not give up down 40-14 and the running game flourished in the 2nd half vs TCU's No.#1 defense. RBs Hillman and Sullivan have extra gears and QB Lindley to WR Brown will score vs. anyone. Utah after a bubble burst loss to TCU lost again, ugly to Notre Dame. This is not a good sign. We've read more than once this week that HC Whittingham is considering a change at QB and benching QB Jordan Wynn. Another bad sign. Now, they must travel in B2B road games and face an underrated SDST team that is a perfect 4-0 at home. [B]407 North Texas +2.5[/B] N Tex RB Dunbar ran for 226 yds LW and QB Dodge is leading his team down the field and this effort goes back two weeks ago when we saw NTex not throw in the towel vs Troy and play to the final whistle. ULM QB Browning who has been behind center all season was knocked out of the LSU game with an ankle injury and is highly questionable. added [B]341 Arkansas -3[/B] Prefer to lay than take the points in this SEC battle, simply because Miss St cannot match points with the Razorbacks and QB Ryan Mallet, who has found his stride each and every week as they put up 500+ yards. Mallet has done a tremendous job finding WRs (10 different LW) since their Top WR Greg Childs is out for the year with a knee injury. We like the spot against Miss St, having played a very tough game LW vs Alabama and have arch rival Ole Miss on deck. [B]392 LSU -16[/B] LSU can name the score here. Their defense will probably out score Ole Miss' offense, who managed just 14 points LW vs Tennessee, infact I project they will score 10 or less. QB Massoli still having headaches and threw 3 INTs early LW. [B]404 Western Kentucky +5[/B] Rumours are that HC Rick Stockstill has lost control of his team. He certainly has MDTNST not focused on winning (L4 of L5) and they cannot go bowling in a Conference that normally only has one team, the Conference Champion in a Bowl. WKU won again LW and has put up solid numbers, wouldn't be surprised they pull the upset here. more play and analysis later in the week...

Alf- First congrats on your incredible week. Second in looking over your three early selections you got good value on all three games but two of the teams you selected have key injuries. Northwestern lost their star QB and San Diego State has three key defensive players listed as questionable, their MLB, CB and Safety. Are you playing these games light, medium, heavy or possibly looking to middle your play closer to gametime?

Hi Lee, all of my plays are straight one unit plays unless I mention otherwise. Persa out yes, but line over TD thought was ridiculous as poor as Illinois has played lately and now on neutral field. SDST is more of a play against the shell-shocked Utes. What do you like early Lee?

There will be more ILL fans, but MUCH easier travel for NWU 1 hour bus trip vs. having to fly in......or maybe ILL does the 4+ hour drive........OOPS make that 2 hour drive no traffic!

added 341 Arkansas -3 392 LSU -16 404 Western Kentucky +5

Saturday College Thoughts Penn State -10 Indiana QB Chapppell will probably start but he has a bad hip and his backup is out. This is a almost a home game for Penn State and Indians looks to have quit. Tennessee-8.5 The Volunteers have found a QB and their defense although not top teer can hold down bottom feeders like Vandy who is down to a 3rd string RB and a QB who is awful. Ohio State - Iowa OVER 48 If the weather looks to be good then a play on the over is strongly being considered. Both defenses aren't what they were last year and both QB's are very good, over 9.0 yards per attempt. Eastern Michigan +7 Buffalo's offense is putrid fans stopped going to the games to support them. E. Mich can score and hasn't given up. Pittsburgh -2.5 South Florida's off and def line play is way down and QB Daniel has regressed. Make fun of Pitt head coach often but they are 7-2 ATS after a SU loss. Louisville +5 The Cards should have their starting QB back. RB Powell is a beast and they are a well coached team. WV isn't a high scoring team and Head Coach Stewart is awful, totally clueless and 14-20 ATS. He's Larry Coker part II. UL Lafayette +10 FIU is much improved but laying double digits vs a team that can score and probably is getting their QB back this week. FIU needs 2 wins in their last 3 games to secure a Sun Belt Title. It won't be easy in a conference where any team can beat any other team on any given day. Also taking a look at Rice if I can get at least 10 points on Saturday. East Carolina QB Davis hurt his left non throwing shoulder bad, similar injury to what Miami QB Harris had for a few weeks and they list him as probable. He should play but he will probably have to get the shoulder shot up and that should affect his play. These are most of what I'm looking at for Saturday's CFB. I'm looking to help people on this board out a little and end up in the plus.

Thanks Lee. Cool

Good stuff Lee! We bet Tennessee LW, cashed, and think they are possibly the right side again here, like 8 TDs in 2 gms by QB Bray, but concerned that Vandy might show at some point this season and this rivalry may be the only spot ....and now the line move to Vandy....?? Anyone else have a take on this game...discuss.

agree vandy has to show up at some point...and looks too easy to take vols again, we cashed with em 2x ..not going to press it

Playing the due to cover angle will lead you over the cliff. Vandy is awful. Unless Tennessee turns the ball over 3 or more times the vols roll. Tennessee dominates the bad teams but can't play with the big boys.