PRO FOOTBALL - Alf M's College Football Week # 5 Early Plays

sean1

Oct 8, 2010
4:22pm

Not sure if Iowa made sense - may have given the total near 40, but I still don't think it did considering it didn't cross both 3 and 7 and those points are worth less in college anyways. I am 100% sure OR -7 teaser with a total over 60 is not +EV

Skeeter

Oct 8, 2010
4:46pm

Block User

I never play college teasers so I would likely agree they are not +EV. But I'm not sure my opinion is changed that Oregon is any worse because the total is higher. Likewise Iowa is any better because the total is lower. If I were crossing 3 and 7 on an underdog I'm sure that is true but if I'm betting the favourite I would think if anything I would prefer a higher total to a lower total but given the spreads here to be given I would almost think the total has a marginal impact on the teaser expectation from the favourite perspective. But if anything Oregon is better than Iowa since if they did win their part of the teaser they probably win by more points than Iowa assuming you were laying the same points on each team in the teaser.

Fezzik

Oct 9, 2010
1:31am

Block User

The problem is that these high totalled teams win by more, and lose by more. Basic Strategy on College TEasers: 1. The NUTS. 7 point favorite you 'know' is going up to -8 or higher AND the total is low. 2. Only play the NUTS.

roughrider39

Oct 9, 2010
3:08am

Block User

[QUOTE=Fezzik;29535]Basic Strategy on College TEasers: 1. The NUTS. 7 point favorite you 'know' is going up to -8 or higher AND the total is low. 2. Only play the NUTS.[/QUOTE] I will have to call you the nut peddler the next time I see you. LOL

sean1

Oct 9, 2010
5:31am

Block User

The higher the total in any sport, the less each point or half point is worth.

agbillion

Oct 9, 2010
1:49pm

Block User

Louisville NICE win Alf! thanks [B]322 Louisville -15[/B]...would lay up to and including -17. Memphis has 2 QBs and a 3rd possibly ready to go Saturday. But none of them can throw, 9-19-82 yards and LW at home vs Conf Tulsa. Memphis were down by 20 then 30 and their coaches have no confidence in their QBs so they continued to run the ball, down by 30! They also have multiple injuries on the OL. Louisville seems to be getting better each week. LW at Ark st 267 rush, 300+ passing = all cylinders working well. Former UNLV head coach Mike Sanford always does well as the offensive co-ordinator.