Alf M's College Football Week # 9 Early Plays [B]314 Army +7.5[/B]
We've been on Army many times this season and were surprised to get a TD or more for the Commander in Chief Trophy fight.
Air Force must travel clear across the nation to play and an early start time on the East Coast. They have played a very difficult strength of schedule to date, Utah, TCU, Oklahoma etc...and now they are paying for it, with multiple injuries on the defensive line and their Top RB (Jared Tew) and FB are missing in this crucial battle.
[B]327 Boston College -2.5[/B].......-3 OK
WF has little or no offense and even though BC is banged up, RB Harris 31-142 yards LW, should put up similar numbers vs WF's 5.0 ypc run defense. Line line is still a bargain IMO.
[B]385 Missouri -5[/B]
I made the line Mizzou -8 and we have to think the line will trend to that side (now -4, why?, set up?, QB Gabbert probable, it's the same T Tech backers all season) because plain and simple Texas Tech's defense is equivalent to that of New Mexico State. Against A&M LW they surrendered 35 first downs and 623 yards and to boot A&M lost their Top RB in that game and started QB Ryan Tannehill (making his first start ever) torched T Tech for a school record of 449 yards! They have huge holes along the defensive line, a cluster of injuries at DE AND several WRs on the injury list as well.
Yes, Missouri is no longer undefeated and this is a bubble burst situation, but after the initial shock of Nebraska rolling and RB Helu busting out big gainers, Gabbert was forced to throw for 3 quarters and Nebraska teed off on him to the tune of 6 sacks. That won't happen here with Missouri ahead and running the ball more successfully.
added
360 Oregon -28.5...... I'm absolutely no help on this game now. We played Oregon -28.5 around 8:45 AM Monday, with the rumour that Washington QB Jake Locker is out. I got a call from a friend around 12:30pm that ESPN released and confirmed that Locker is out with a rib injury. From my cell phone driving, I pulled over and I posted here Oregon -28.5, not knowing that it was not available anywhere. I tried to get it up on the site asap and that was my intention. As I have mentioned before I don't bet games to play middles or scalps.
[B]309 Western Michigan +3.5[/B]
Is the wrong team favored here? C Mich has lost their last 6 games in a row, have no running game and cannot go to a Bowl. Their 2 wins are against E Michigan and lowly FCS Hampton.
W Mich played N Illinois very tough LW, lost to Notre Dame via 4 turnovers and blew out Ball St 45-16. Take the generous points.
[B]317 NC State +4 -111[/B]
NCST has extra days to prepare for this ACC battle. They have quality wins vs Florida State, BC and Cincinnati. Clemson lost to BC LW (did not score an offense TD) and has only 4 wins vs Maryland, G Tech, Presbyterian and N Texas.
Clemson's defense is pretty good, and will keep them in this game, but now they lose their best offensive talent RB Ellington, who accounted for 700 yards and 10 TDs, he is OUT with a foot injury.
[B]325 Illinois +3[/B]
[B]329 Penn State -5.5[/B]
This matchup give us another rare "Cam Fella" play, where the opponent respects the opposition so much that they lose their focus and get blown out. Penn State HC Joe Paterno is going for his "400th" win and we have read that the team, coaching staff, players all want to get it done THIS WEEK. Next week they are at Ohio St.
[B]336 Florida St -9.5 -115[/B]
Florida State is by far the better team at almost every position. They outplayed NCST LW and gave the game away in the 2nd half. We believe they will perform with much more focus here at home. UNC is so short-handed HC Butch Davis is realigning his team, especially the defense, on a weekly basis. They have holes and cluster injuries at CB and DB which are much needed vs. the Seminoles pass attack. UNC was down 7-17 to William & Mary after 3 Qs.
[B]389 Tennessee -20[/B]
There is not much difference between laying -18.5 and -20 here. This play is a bet against Memphis who just might be the worst FBS team. Last week vs Conf USA rival Houston, Memphis gave up 37 first downs and 651 yards and it doesn't seem to matter who the Tigers play, week after week each team record's their best offensive production of the season against the small, injured, undermanned and weak Memphis defense.
The Vols are starting FR QB Tyler Bray instead of Simms and that's OK with us because Simms just never saw a receiver past 10 yards down field.
more College plays and analysis later in the week.
