Alf M's Football NFL Thread Divisional Playoffs

Alf M's Football NFL Thread Divisional Playoffs [B]109 Baltimore Ravens +3.5 -115[/B] Another Clash of the Titans battle here and in five of the past seven meetings, the final score has landed on 3. Baltimore has the edge on offense, better WRs, better group of RBs, better offensive line and it seems like Flacco never has a really good game. We'll give the Steelers the edge in intangibles, home field and special teams and the much needed rest especially for All-World Safety Polamalu, but the Ravens are clearly live in this game, getting the hook is huge, this line should be -2.5 in a playoff setting IMO. Atlanta -2.5 vs Green Bay Packers We bet and lost with the Falcons on MNF vs. the Saints (looks worse after the Saints loss to the Seahawks) and Atlanta proved to me they lack the physicality, play making and defense to win the big game and their weak schedule gave them home field in the NFC. LB Curtis Lofton perhaps their best LB and tackler is questionable with a knee injury. The Packers are on a roll and their defense can take them to the Super Bowl. The line when these teams met in the regular season was -2 and now pretty much the same. Somehow, I will get to the Packers in this one and definitely a buyer at +3. Chicago Bears -10 vs Seattle Cannot recommend the Seahawks after B2B huge wins at home against the Rams and Saints. This is one of my favorite handicapping/betting angles, where the visiting team having played much weaker opposition, now faces a bigger stronger and superior overall team, it is very difficult and very unlikely that this visiting team can come into Soldier Field and win this game. Not happening. Do we want to lay -10, no. The weather forecast is cloudy 20* with 15-20 mph winds. I think teasing the Bears down to -3 is the way to go here. New England -8.5 vs NY Jets I'm convinced that the coaching edge in this game is worth 3 points. Big mouth/big head/overconfident Rex Ryan wants to take the pressure off his team, I think he may be doing the opposite. The team must back up their loud mouth coach who never has anything intelligent to say and doesn't seem to lend any coaching brilliance to a game plan or actual field generalship. The QB edge? Is maybe worth another 3, 3.5 points. The Pats were -3 a month ago at home vs. the Jets and now -8.5. Tough to lay the extra wood despite the young and improving Pats defense. Jets will be minus RT Woody a solid run blocker, former Patriot, and all purpose QB/RB/KR Brad Smith is highly questionable with a bad groin injury, both key personnel that I though the line would move. I can't see the sharps and large money laying the big points on Sunday, the lines should come down a bit. [B]We'll tease the Pats and Bears then.[/B]

[QUOTE=Alf M;37355][B]109 Baltimore Ravens +3.5 -115[/B] getting the hook is huge, this line should be -2.5 in a playoff setting IMO. [/B][/QUOTE] So you think the line should be 2.5, but the linesmakers "inexplicably" (my word, not yours) hung a 3.5 on there. So in your mind, you assume that you are right and they put a bad number, and you grab it? As opposed to the other alternative: that the linesmaker clearly knew what they were doing when they set this line, and knew it would be so tempting to Ravens backers they would grab it using the same logic as you just did. And they are right w/ the number, especially considering the volume of bets on Bal, yet the line is still WA at 3.5 at most sharp books. It's an interesting question - did they mess up or did you do exactly what they wanted you to do?

[QUOTE=IceTea;37359] especially considering the volume of bets on Bal, yet the line is still WA at 3.5 at most sharp books. [/QUOTE] Please explain this.

When it comes to the NFL the linesmakers are pretty good at making numbers compared to College and knowing which side to protect, and which side their clients have been betting. I'll give them credit there. But, if I was booking the Ravens-Steelers game, and I think Baltimore is the right side, I would not want to give the bettors +3. That's why my personal line is -2.5. AND they will get bombarded with money hours before kickoff and the number then could be quite a bit off, probably not on this game, look what happened on Monday with an avalanche of Oregon money! The sportsbooks have to post a line on every game, we have the edge not them. The M in Las Vegas may be one of the last sportsbooks left that actually posts a number based on their handicapping opinion, will take the punch and not move on air, eg; right now Patriots -7.5 and subsequently they have been flooded with teaser money.