Alf M's Football NFL Thread Wildcard Week

Alf M's Football NFL Thread Wildcard Week [B]105 Baltimore Ravens -2.5 -121[/B].....adjusted price, do not lay -3 Kansas City looked very flat vs. the Raiders, they did not put out a good effort on the field. One would expect them to play much improved football this week, but if you watched the game LW, QB Cassel has major issues. His mobility is half what it was before the emergency appendectomy surgery, and when he is forced to move he simply cannot make a throw, lacking serious arm strength and a lower throwing motion that is absolutely brutal. He will cost Kansas City this game. So now to beat KC all you have to do is stop one guy, RB Jamaal Charles. He was very close to knocking off the HOF Jim Brown for average yards per carry. Charles' 6.38 to Brown's 6.41 fell one decent carry short. Now he faces the Ravens who have the 6th best rush defense. This Baltimore team has years of playoff experience, Wildcard experience, and recall LY successfully knocking off the Patriots on the road. This KC team hasn't sniffed the playoffs since 2006 when Herm Edwards was the coach! Add in the fact that this KC team only defeated one team with a winning record...and that was vs. the Chargers in Week One. We'll side with the better coach, QB, experience and defense. New Orleans Saints -10.5 vs Seattle Seahawks Sometimes the NFL is all about betting the bounce the right way. The Saints coming off their biggest win of the season on MNF beating Atlanta, couldn't handle the Tampa Bay Bucs at home LW, while conversely, Seattle played as well as they could with QB Whitehurst and the 12th man and win a virtual one game playoff just to in get. You could bet the bounce and expect the Saints and Drew Brees to come out flying and also project Seattle to have nothing left.....and if I were to play the game that's the way I'd go, but this line is too high IMO, so for now it is a pass... Indianapolis Colts -2.5 vs NY Jets Both of these teams are worse than when they met last year in the playoffs and that is because we are talking about 20+ players on IR, and from what is left of these squads now is obviously a huge edge at QB or is it?. Indy needs to stop the run and force the Jets to throw and Manning will do the rest.....line still may come down....lean Colts Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 vs Green Bay Packers You would have to expect Michael Vick will play here after sitting LW out with a quad injury. Green Bay had a 17 point lead in Week One at Philly and when QB Kevin Kolb went down the Vick resurgence was on, as he put up 175 yds, 1 TD and 100+ rushing. However, the Pack has shown a better and more consistent defense ranking No. #5 in the league.....lean Packers.

Remember: Different rules in the playoffs, specifically if a team wins the coin toss in overtime and drives for a field goal, what happens next? Does the other team get a chance? Do they get the ball kicked to them? What if it is an onside kick and the kicking team recovers? What if there is an interception, and the interceptor doesn't fall down but instead fumbles, and it is picked up by the passing team? (Fumbled INTs recovered by the offense results in a new set of downs, if I recall correctly.) Most importantly, do these new rules increase or decrease the chance for a three point win?

They diminish the chance of a 3 point outcome very slightly Remember, the new rules only kick in 1. In OT (7% chance) 2. If the receving team scores in the 1st possession (maybe a 1/3 chance). So only 2% of games will have an impact.

That's a great number on the Ravens, Alf. Congrats!!!

[QUOTE=Fezzik;36824]Remember, the new rules only kick in 1. In OT (7% chance) 2. If the receving team scores in the 1st possession (maybe a 1/3 chance). So only 2% of games will have an impact.[/QUOTE] I think (2) above is slightly different. I understand that if the receiving team scores a TD, or incurs a safety, the game is over, and the kicking team does not get an offensive posession. So, the new rules would only kick in: 1. In OT 2. If the receiving team scores a FG.

2.5 -110 wasnt a market # at the time of post. to be fair, it should be "released" as 2.5 -120 at best or 3 even. sunday evening, -2.5 -110 would be fair...

Yes, it is very important that I-we-you post lines that are available and can be bought, otherwise defeating the purpose here. Pinny had Balt -1 to -1.5 for 24 hours and did not get to it and then when I did bet it, waited too long to do the write-up etc...... very busy working on golf for 2011.

-1 and -1.5 with a wee bit of juice of course.