Alf M's Football Thread Week #13 Short College Football card this week and did not pull the trigger on any early games Sunday, did play one NFL game.
[B]351 Chicago Bears -3 -120[/B]
Can you lay -5 now you are asking? Let's say that the sportsbooks did not post a line all week until Thursday when they knew for sure the Lions would be forced to start QB Drew Stanton, have TE Scheffler and RB Best very questionable and now DE Vanden Bosch limited. That line should be Bears -6 IMO and I would have played -5. I also subscribe to the handicapping theory that you should get the best number on a game or pass. I also believe the theory and stats that if you just pick the winner of the game you'll win 85% ATS, and just one more, sometimes it is better to pass a winner than back a loser. All in all the Bears are hot, the superior team on both sides of the ball and Detroit fades in the 2nd half better than any team we've seen the past 2 months.
[B]357 Atlanta -2.5 -115[/B]
Cannot find rational reasoning behind the line coming down. The Falcon's effort and control they had against the Packers was solid and well coached. This team is well balanced, they lead the NFL in fewest penalties and have not had a turnover in 4 straight games. (How many teams have achieved that since 1970?) Answer is 12.
I have watched the Bucs-Ravens game 2x now, once live and again on Short Tracks and Tampa was very lucky to cover that game, they were dominated by Baltimore for 3 and a half quarters. Tampa's OL has issues and after LW's game they had 3 players go on IR, and they'll certainly miss DB Cody Grimm and G Davin Joseph the most.
[B]353 Under 41 49ers at Green Bay[/B]
I have a friend at the stadium and he says it's bone chilling cold with 10-15 mph winds. 49ers trying to get RB M Westbrooke back on track for potential playoff run and Packers when they have the lead will run out the clock with long sustained drives.
