Alf M's Football Thread Week #15

Alf M's Football Thread Week #15 [B]307 Jacksonville +4.5[/B] This line is too high IMO, and a huge game in the division, got to take the points here. Jax won 31-28 in Week 4 and they are a much improved team since then seeking respect and trying to sweep the Colts for the first time ever. Here's my favorite stat of the week....facing a pass rush of 4 or fewer Jax QB David Garrard has the NFL's highest completion rate at 71.7%.....AND the Colts rush 4 or fewer DL 88.8 % of the time which is the highest in the NFL = advantage Jaguars. [B]318 Dallas -6.5 -115[/B] Washington and HC Shanaghan are treating the remainder of the season as [B][I]pre-season and evaluating players?[/I][/B] Yes. AND more loses will increase their chances to grab one of the BIG 4 QBs in next years draft. Forget about the rivalry. If Washington cared about it, or this game, they would start McNab. Dallas has showed good form vs the Eagles, Colts, Saints, Lions and NYG all of whom are better teams than Washington.
Read this AM that Garrard tweaked a hammy on thursday and in questionable. Obviously will impact the number if downgraded before kickoff. Any extra value in a Vegas over-reaction to such news ? What's losing a starting QB add to the number, and is it generally too much ? Or too little ?
NFL QBs Depends on the QBs. Rodgers to Flynn=worth a touchdown. Garrard to Edwards=worth a field goal. Sanchez to Brunell=worthless.
Garrard will almost certainly play. Vegas' reaction is small in the real world of sports betting and you are correct they always over-react especially joints like Stations and Leroys, afraid Billy Walter's runners show up.

I've learned not to go against Manning. Since every sports broadcaster, and everyone else I know is on the Jaguars....it's time to get on the Manning bandwagon.
Manning? 1-4 ATS L5, you are losing money hand over fist. Jags 6-0 ATS L6. Too many lazy cappers out there using the contrarian theory. If these two teams play 10x, Jax covers +4.5 points six to 6.5 times.