Alf M's NFL Thread Week #10 [B]225 NY Jets -3 -115[/B]
The Jets have played B2B sloppy games and perhaps should not have won in Detroit LW, but favor Jets defense so much more than the Patriot's defense that the Browns faced LW and now laying less? Surely, RB Peyton Hillis will not have the same impact and not impressed with QB McCoy's ability to drive his team down the field because Cleveland has been winning with gimmick plays trick plays and turnovers. Rex Ryan 2-0 over brother Rob Ryan.
[B]230 Denver +1[/B]
Obvious spot play here on the Broncos with last week off facing the Chiefs who are off B2B O.T. games now playing B2B road games and divisional game. We expect Denver's best effort of the year. RB Knowshon Moreno healthy and ready to go.
[B]231 STL Rams +6[/B]......don't think we'll get a better number and it's peaked at +6. Not sure 49ers are the better team and this line should be closer to -3 than -6. Rams are certainly better at home, but we like what we see out of the Rams defense which now ranks 10th and has kept them in games through the 4th Q.
[B]238 Steelers -4 -112[/B]
The Patriots are masquerading as a top AFC 6-2 team. Their defense now ranks 29th in the NFL! HC Belichick last week implemented a defensive program to stop one guy, Cleveland RB Peyton Hillis. Hillis ran for 184 yards and two TDs. They have gone from a 3-4 defense to a 5-2 and put NT Wilfork on the outside for a pass rush? WR Wes Welker has 70 yards total since Randy Moss left, he is double teamed constantly. Last week Welker had to kick an extra point because their Kicker Gostkowski is now out with a thigh injury, the replacement is Shayne Graham who cannot hit a 40+ yd FG.
You are going to hear and read that the Patriots off a loss with HC Belichick has been money in the bank. Most of those loses were against good teams and the next game was against weaker teams like the Bills and Jaguars, not the Steelers, who bring a stifling defense. We see QB Roethlisberger getting better each week and will have a solid game vs the Pats.
Lay the points.
[B]240 Washington +3 +100[/B]
Favor the Redskins in this spot with an extra week to prepare and the Eagles coming off a big win vs. Peyton Manning and the Colts. QB McNabb's benching is a tactic that HC Shanahan has used successfully in the past. Washington won 17-12 in the 1st meeting where the defense stepped up and McNabb has the advantage of knowing his ex-teamates very well.
more plays and analysis later in the week
