Alf M's NFL Thread Week #12 [B]105 New Orleans Saints -3.5[/B]
If you can lay -3 -120 go ahead and do so, but as this season has progressed sportsbooks are making on and off key numbers more expensive to the tune of 25, 30 and 35 cent penalties.
While 3 is THE key number in football, the right side is much more important and just picking the winner of the game as we know = 85% ATS.
The Saints are no longer a go against Super Bowl Champ team, they are healthier on defense with MVP Darren Sharper leading the way, QB Brees and the offense put in variations of the offense from last year. Dallas 2-0 with new HC Garrett vs turnover prone NY Giants and Detroit, will be be put to the test more by the Saints and it will be interesting to see how the Cowboys react once down by 14 points and realize they have nothing to play for while the Saints are marching to the post season.
[B]225 Tampa Bay +9[/B]
We've been on the Bucs before and I like the fact that they are the ultimate backdoor cover team. Last week they showed us the front door and shut-out the 49ers. For Baltimore, Carolina made Willis McGahee and Ray Rice look like thunder and lightning and the Ravens have struggled against good passing teams. I made the line Ravens -5 and would take a TD or more.
[B]237 San Diego +3[/B]
The Chargers are the better team, period. The Colts are banged up as much as any team in the NFL. QB Phillip Rivers right now is playing his best football, better than Peyton Manning. He is 16-0 STR in the months of Nov and Dec. The Chargers ARE the No.#1 team in the league on OFFENSE AND DEFFENSE based on yards per game. You'll never see a team ranked No.#1 in both and getting points. We recall San Diego ending the Colts season in the playoffs 23-17 LY and 3 times in the L4 years.
