Alf M's NFL Thread Week One [B]457 Atlanta Falcons -1[/B]
This line may come down, I'd be patient, I have Atlanta for now but want more at +1....and the big hunters/power dog players love this game.
Atlanta has by far the better offense, better RB, QB, WR, OL. The Steelers have the better defense, LB and SEC especially. So how can we make a stronger case for the Falcons? Simple, Dennis Dixon.
Dixon does the one thing that an NFL QB cannot do, will not get away with and will cost his team this game....he holds on to the football too long. In fact I have never seen a QB perform worse and cost his team a game (I don't care that it was pre-season, all starters intact) vs. Denver, than when Dixon had 2 INTS, one in the Red Zone and a fumble near the Red Zone on 3 consecutive drives!!!!
I see two teams going in opposite direction here. Atlanta has a weak schedule this year and they should be focused against a team even with Troy Palomalo back, (but for how long, often INJ) that is massively overrated with a horrible game coach.
[B]467 Indianapolis Colts -1[/B]
Houston is 1-15 lifetime against the Colts, most of that against Peyton Manning. I've just about heard enough talk that this is Houston's year. When the chips are down and the Colts are ahead or need a game winning drive, nobody manages the clock better than PM.
RB Arian Foster isn't the answer, their best tackler OLB Brian Cushing is SUSP, Steve Slaton is banged up so is TE Owen Daniels, they are weak in the SEC which is the key handicapping matchup for the Colts to take advantage of. The Colts will start All-World Safety Bob Sanders, OL Jeff Saturday is probable and WR Anthony Gonzalez returns to the field for more depth at WR.
If the Texans don't keep pace scoring, they get blown out.
[B]459 Detroit Lions +7[/B]
Slowly money has come in on the Bears, but I believe it is negative Detroit money. The public and sharp squares still see the Lions as the bottom of the barrel NFC North team, I say they will give the Bears a run for their money in the Division and it starts right here.
The pre-season surely tells us how far behind new OC Mike Martz and QB Cutler are struggling with the new offense. The OL is not in sync and obviously neither is Cutler and his WRs. On the defensive side of the ball, the front 4 looks solid but after that, their top two run stoppers LBs Urlacher and Briggs are doubtful/questionable.
The Lions had the best off-season of any team IMO, they drafted potential superstars in this league with Suh and Best. Also, in the pre-season they did not start or play any of their top defensive backfield and corners, they are rested and ready.
[B]461 Bengals/Patriots Over 44.5[/B]
The Pats have IMO a Bottom 5 defense in the NFL, their defense has been depleted over the past three years to the point of signing weekly free agents to cover holes in the defense. The Bengals have plenty of firepower to exploit this weakness, as long as they do not decide to run all day with Cedric Benson this total should fly over.
For New England to win, they are going to be forced to out-score opponents period. If the game is close, their defense cannot win the game for them.
Projection: New England 30 Cincinnati 23
