Alf M's Week # 3 College Football Thread Early Plays
[B]302 Pittsburgh +4 -120[/B].....there are still +4s out there. I made Pit -1 and betting on Thursday/Friday night ESPN home teams have been MIB. 3-0 LW, 5-1 L2W ATS. Pitt will find a way to replace stud LB Romeus, but it's the DL pass rush that we like to try and keep Hurricane QB Harris inside the hash marks.
[B]309 Bowling Green +23[/B]....backup QB Pankratz led BG to 2 TDs late against Marshall and the offense rolled up almost 400 yards, and it's this matchup that will be the difference maker as Big Blue defense is average at best. HC Rodriguez has tried to give QB and Heisman front runner Robinson a break, even LW up by 18, U Mass continued to score. Michigan kickers are 1-4 FG.
[B]312 Iowa -28[/B].....most cappers will not lay pts here with Iowa after huge game and close loss to Arizona. However, I painfully watched the entire Purdue/Ball St game and noticed Ball St has decent athletes on defense but their offense is very weak, no passing game at all and a Team Total play of under 7 pts would be a good bet IMO. Iowa gets back on track at home and rolls 42-3/42-6. (proj)
[B]317 Temple +17[/B].....same as Tennessee last week +17 is key, perhaps the number comes back at close, Penn State has a history of crushing Temple for multiple years and all the trend players will be on State.
[B]319 NC State +9[/B]....this is my best bet of the week. NCST has 4 defensive starters led by SR MLB Nate Irving, who were all out LY due to injury at one time or another. The defense is solid, super pass rush, stop the run surrendering just 2.7 ypc. QB Russell Wilson is hitting his stride and off to the NFL. G Tech ran all over a depleted N Carolina team, beat S Carolina St and LOST to Kansas.
[B]323 Army +7 -120[/B].....Army may be minus one of their top SB/RB Mealy, but read the boxscores of the Army games and they have 9 different RBs, 7 of which had at least 5 attempts and ran for 292 yards LW. Duke took a pounding to say the least against returning Heisman RB Mark Ingram and Bama, but also notice they gave up 229 yds on the ground to Wake Forest and even over 100+ yds to 1AA Elon.
[B]361 So. Mississippi -5.5[/B].....line going the other way, still like So. Miss, cannot make a case for Lou Tech who gives up points and yardage in bunches and laid down once they got behind A&M and Navy LW.
added Tuesday
[B]374 San Diego State -7[/B].....why this line isn't double digits is beyond me. Monday morning the Logan Herald Journal revealed several defensive players injured from the Fresno State game, [I]Safety Rajric Coleman, cornerback Chris Randle, running back Michael Smith, punter/place-kicker Peter Caldwell are listed as "very questionable" for Saturday's game against the Aztecs.[/I] Caldwell a SR this year does both PK/Punt would be replaced by a true freshman if he cannot go.
Again we'll mention SDST RB Ronnie Hillman as a key figure, LW he had another stellar game 228 yds 2 TDs and he is just getting warmed up. SDST HC Hoke points out that a missed block in the back call was the reason they lost LW to Missouri, AND this is beneficial to us, because had they defeated Top 30 Big 12 Mizzo on the road this line would be -14, so a touchdown seems quite cheap to me here.
added Thursday
[B]375 West Virginia +10[/B]
LSU beat Miss St last week benefitting from 5 INTS, +4.0 in turnovers and were out-gained as well. Prior to that they beat a lackluster Vandy team and a depleted N Carolina squad which was UNC's 1st game without all their players due to suspensions. Now, at a ridiculous price they face a WV team that finally showed the form that could lead to the Big East title. Their spread offense put up huge numbers 200+ both rushing and passing, up 21-0 at half time and they held Maryland to -10 yds rushing from 27 carries!
The reason for the line move? There are many that believe playing a night game in Baton Rouge is the toughest spot in all of College Football. Add in the humidity and possible rain this Sat night and I can see their point. However, LSU has trouble scoring points as it is and I made the line -6 and a buyer at +10 or more.
.... any questions feel free to ask in this sticky thread.
