Alf M's Week # 3 College Football Thread

Good for them. Could you kindly ask them to take me off of their delay screens if life is so good. Thanks.

So to recap: North Carolina- Huge middle landed in that game for those that bet injury news. Houston- 2nd half fade and under hit after injury to QB's in first half. Minnesota- Winner.. (but could have lost)

I've been wanting to fade Boston College and V Tech might be the spot, but the INJ and SUSP have me on the fense, I want the side and number to matchup, I usually look for 3 pt deviant from my number for an auto play, but with BC I might only need 1 pt, as their offense is very weak/suspect. Bowling Green, even with the QB out thought the number was too high, may have to play the Polish middle.

I don't see how you can site the NC/LSU game as being good for bookmakers The sharps played LSU +1 up to -6. Then they came over the top with NC +8.5, game lands 6. Sure the donks played LSU -7. And that is the only reason the bookmakers win. Vs. the bad players.

The point is, and not sure why I'm bothering when it's so obvious, is that these injury games seem to struggle, barely win, or get creamed. I cited multiple examples from this season. Same thing happens every week with Utah. The injury bettors love to bet against this team. It's comical. Believe what you want and do what you want obviously, I was just making an obvious observation. We'll revisit this the next time there is some massively retarded weather total move that either barely wins or loses by like 2 TDs.

Under this reasoning you must make a killing fading these moves so if you could point out your plays on these in the future it would probably be beneficial to help illustrate your reasoning (before the games of course).

[QUOTE=MikeRAS;28177]Under this reasoning you must make a killing fading these moves so if you could point out your plays on these in the future it would probably be beneficial to help illustrate your reasoning (before the games of course).[/QUOTE] Forgive me for stating how some/most of these big injury moves lose. I listed a bunch of examples from the past few weeks, but here is some analysis and a play for you. North Texas at the apex (may be +14, who knows) bc it opened 4, no way they missed this bad no matter who plays QB. North Texas sucks, can't score, etc. No one at CRIS knew this obviously so they missed by a TD or more maybe? Whatever.

11/10 is right about the late bettors, but wow is he wrong about the early ones. I cannot tell you how many games I've won -6 openers that landed 10 and closed 11,etc. I agree 100% that the injuries/weather get overhyped and overbet, thus the 8 of clubs bets wins.........BUT Originate, or get in early, and you kick ass.

added San Diego St -7, Utah State banged up after Fresno game, do not see this line going lower.

[QUOTE=Alf M;28208]added San Diego St -7, Utah State banged up after Fresno game, do not see this line going lower.[/QUOTE] Any concern about the Aztecs coming off that gut-wrenching loss at Mizzou? They had that game won.