Anybody want to help me with advice on NFL Regular Season Wins Bets I placed a few bets today on regular season wins just online but didn't play many others that I could have. I'm sure I'll see more bargains in this later especially in Nevada to add to existing bets and create new ones. For those of you not following as closely here is what I see some "leans" on to obtain good numbers.
(1) There is pressure on the Cincinnati Bengals under. I know it is laughable from what I've seen that MGM had a 7 on this or something like that but I played under 5.5+115 today for a small bet.
-Commentary I heard from a few guys on ESPN and NFL Live etc. is they're terrible. Probably can't win more than 6 games.
(2) I played a little Jets Under 10+105.
-Not sure why I'm seeing this lean but it looks like the Jets have some potential problems on the offensive line although I think Mangold sat out Monday. But anyway I saw this lean and put a little on it.
(3) I played some Arizona over 6.5-140. This was the smallest lean but it is actually one I totally agree with and I don't see why this number is this low.
-It is probably pretty sound advice and Fez sent a tweet that if the Cardinals didn't get Kolb they're season wins would be down a game so that this trade was anticipated so that the move should be tapered up. And the M resort manager I read a comment said the same thing.
I'm going to say they're wrong in that they're underestimating the impact of the trade. I think their analysis is that Kolb is worth 2 wins if you assume they would have been lined at a 5 win number and instead they have a number closer to 7 although it is less than 2 wins slightly at current odds that this trade is worth according to market. I do know John Clayton has them as an 8 win team with the trade and clearly has stated Kolb is worth 3 wins. It seems like there is more room for this to go up. They've also done a few other moves. I know they got Bradley from Philly for the linebackers and Todd Heap.
I agreed with this one made a little bigger bet on it but it is still a small bet at this point as I do respect Clayton's opinion on what a trade for an "elite" or "near elite" QB is worth since I know he spends alot of time studying this particular issue.
Other leans that I saw that I didn't bet and also would be interested in commentary.
Giants are being slight bet under and I saw I had a chance to also bet the Redskins over for a slight advantage.
At least offshore, Tampa Bay Under 8-105 is flagging as a good bet. I don't really have anything on them from a commentary standpoint. It couldn't have gone better in the first pre-season game. But this is a scalpable number to Pinnacle already and is around at a few spots.
Very slight lean to Green Bay under their number. Just too big a number? Not a good camp? It is a small lean.
I could have bet the Bills under 5.5-115 perhaps just a number a little off.
