Anyone able to write up the Bengals 4 star?

Anyone able to write up the Bengals 4 star? I know Fezzik doesn't do a lot of writeups. I'm trying to do a back of the envelope reverse engineering of why this is a 4 star play. Anyone out there have a clue why this is good? The 49ers are almost +3 and I'm wondering whether it is another game I need to say good bye to. My initial thoughts for discussion are that the Bengals and Dalton have been a pleasant surprise pulling off a mild upset over the Browns and then staying in the game vs. Denver. I didn't see either game but Denver's team was riddled by injuries and still managed to win. If one made a line on power ratings and home field the game would be Cincy a very small favourite which is what the game was. I have to assume that Fezzik's 4 star has little to do with power ratings. Perhaps he's got something or someone has something they are willing to share that the Bengals are better than this. But for the most part it is hard to be too enthusiastic about their team. I know Carson Palmer wasn't and he's knows more about them than I do. We have San Fran travelling across the coast. I know Fez likes that angle. Cincy in the heartland not that bad a flight but still 3 hours time difference. 49ers lost Edwards and are gaining back Crabtree. My note is really about are the 49ers a 2 star playback at +3-120, +3-115 or a 6 star play back at that price or we really on a ride with the Bungals?

Consider this merely a stopgap till we hear from him. This analysis is based on my following of the 49ers, interpretation of other posts on this board, and observations of Fezzik's betting patterns. The 49ers are really conservative on offense and will not be able to take advantage of the opportunities the Bengals defense will give them. It's the first road game of the year, and it's a 10 a.m. start. Perhaps Alex Smith's numbers are markedly worse on the road, although I haven't checked this. I also don't know what the weather will be like. He does fumble a lot. The 49ers played good defense against the second worst team in football (Seattle — I think only KC is worse). The Cowboys are not very good, but Romo was able to pass at will against a bad secondary with a broken rib (or was it two? it's like a fish story). My limited observation of the Bengals (they're a second tier team to me in terms of how much I follow them, so I know a bit about them) has told me that the Bengals have set up Dalton to not make a lot of mistakes on offense. There was a thread on here saying that rookie starting QBs who start Week 1 since 2004 are positive EV ATS based on closing numbers, a trend not to take lightly in a year when offenses taking more chances passing the ball are being rewarded in terms of officiating. I expect Fezz will have you play back half a unit on SF +3' or -3 +110 on gameday. As for me, I put one unit at -1' but may play back because this is setting up to be an 8c play. That said, I don't think SF can keep it within 3, but it's the fan in me talking (some fan — seems more pessimistic to me).

3 time zone change, 9am kickoff for SF. Just one of the reasons to like Cincy.

Tbey alos beat a cleveland team that many think could sneak into the playoffs. And tbey did it on the road. Home opener, crowd fired up after a surprisingly encouraging start, ought tp lend a little extra HFA. Bengal D is pretty solid, certainly wouldnt expect alex smth to exploit. Dalto. Is the best rookie QB not named Newton. Time zone thing. Got some at 2, it it stays under an FG, i might double down. In fairness i had the bengals over SF in both super bowls.

The fact this is SF first road game after two home games and this is Cincinnati's first home game after two road games, actually works in SF favor pretty strongly. While there is a little more to this, teams that begin the season at home for two games and then go on the road are in a positive ATS situation. Teams playing their first home game after two road games are in a negative ATS situation. Not making a case for SF but I see a lot of comments around first road game or first home game. Those situations actuallly work opposite of what you may think. I had Cincy last week and they are a good young team. Pretty decent defense with a young qb who looks like he may be pretty good - good head on his shoulders. They have some good, young receivers who are all growing up together. An offensive line that is okay and a team who can run the ball a little. Again, not making a statement either way but Cincy is a nice young team. The fact they couldn't defeat a really banged up Denver team last week is a little alarming.

[QUOTE=jMARTY;46497]3 time zone change, 9am kickoff for SF. Just one of the reasons to like Cincy.[/QUOTE] The game starts at 10.

10am, correct. Suffering my own jet lag.

In a nutshell, the 49ers statistics are HORRENDOUS to start the season, played an almost even game vs. a Sea team that is one of the worst road teams in the NFL.........THEN outgained by 200 yards by Dallas BEFORE The OT bomb. An OT loss never an easy thing to bounce back from. A bad Qb that the team does not believe in. An overpaid rb that got the big contract, HERE COMES THE LACK OF PASSION. As for the Bengals.......they too have problems. The bet is against the 49ers, not on Cincy. I've been too conservative in the past when I know a line 'must' inflate. I fully expect to play back on the 49ers later in the week, after the Bengal Tsunami runs its course. SF +3 is very likely a bet I will fire back on.

All right. There you go the 49ers are horrible. And I didn't read the boxscores. They certainly got the yards piled on them late in that game. Of course, if Harbaugh keeps the ball after the made FG on the Dallas penalty and kills a few more minutes probably gets another FG anyway (maybe a TD, maybe a Smith TO we'll never know) I have a feeling the 49ers are 2-0 and not 1-1. And if the 49ers are lacking passion in week 3 they are in big trouble because that is the whole reason I thought they hired Harbaugh because that is at least one of his main strengths I've heard. The 49ers according to a post on the internet I read in Oct 2010 that is out there are 13-54 in games started at 1 eastern time since 1999 (so I don't know how they did from Oct. 2010 to Jan.2011). Since 2003 they are 7-38 up to Oct. 2010. Without adjusting for how a poor team they were overall and the strength of their opposition probably just safe to say they massively underachieve in these situations. Probably any line under 7 when the 49ers go on the road at 1 p.m. eastern we can assume already takes into account how bad the team is that they're about to play. Based on this winning percentage, the Bengals might be a real bargain. I'm holding my bet. +3-120 not good enough yet. At +3-110 have to figure any angle on the Bengals/49ers is priced in favour of the Bengals only value left could be on the 49ers as bad as that sounds and maybe there isn't even any edge there or enough edge to ever play back 4 stars worth.

So you are putting 4 * on Bengals -1.5 and how many on SF? Are you getting off entirely or will u still win $ if Cin wins by over 3? Also, what do u make of Simpson and his pot house? I think he caught a ton of balls last week, or a ton of yardage, forget which one.....