Argos/Alouettes this upcoming Sunday

Argos/Alouettes this upcoming Sunday I played the Argos +5 in this game. I caught the winner against the sharp money last weekend with the Argos who appeared they might lose big and then almost pulled off the upset late in the game. IMO the line is too high. Both Montreal and Toronto have been inconsistent. There is an extra point maybe more in the line because it is Montreal and their history over the years. What I don't like is that Toronto has already beaten Montreal in Montreal this year I recall so it is a revenge spot for the Als. The positive from the victory is that the Argos might be a better team and I'm still getting the 5 points here. The Argos don't have to win which I feel good about but they definitely can. It is an important game as the Als and Argos for the moment are fighting for top spot in the East and the bye in the playoffs the division championship would be worth. The Argos are on a 3 game road trip as I think their next game is at Winnipeg. It might be a soft spot but 3 games in a row on the road appear daunting if they go 0-2 and then go to Winnipeg (who will have Buck Pierce back at QB likely for that game) ----I think they will catch the Bombers after they've bottomed out here. I can't say alot for Montreal except they did beat BC at home and they beat Sask on the weekend. I think some people feel they are clearly not as strong as other years but yet they're still on top here past mid season. In my own opinion, I still think they're dangerous. From a betting perspective I see Cris at 4.5 now, a lean from Pinnacle at +5 and I even see Carib at +3.5-105. I think there are still many +5's in Nevada and even offshore. I think I would still say the Argos are a good bet at +4 but I would have bet it for less. I might have put the line myself at -3.5. From a true power rating perspective if anyone is doing that, I would think the Argos may even be higher than Montreal so your adjusted line could easily be argued to be 3 or a little less. (Admittedly not really sure what HFA is truly worth in CFL). I would say Montreal's is very good so even if Argos are ahead on power ratings by a point or 2 you may still get Montreal favoured here by at least 2.5 or 3.

I'm giving my own bet an upgrade here. I actually bet Pinnacle one time but the maximum in my account was only 350 for this game so I think that is why Pinnacle is not the barometer on the game since big bettors can't get down here. There is a major injury to a Montreal player that I wasn't even aware of when I made my first bet which wasn't Pinnacle. The injury is to Brandon Whittaker who is one of the premier running backs in the league. He is a great receiver as well. He has to be worth a point on the line IMO. I would really bet any +5 I could get now figuring this just has to go down anyway but I honestly thought it was off to begin with. This news cannot be fully comprehended in the market from what I've seen. Obviously Carib is aware of it----or one of their bettors is more likely. Adding Brian Bratton is also out apparently a Montreal WR. Useful guy from what I've seen of him when watching their games (which admittedly isn't that often).

Got a good number but the Argos played a terrible game. Mtl got a good start but early in the game Argo QB Ray got injured and he never returned. End of advantage. It seemed the Argos were flat and made far too many mistakes to even be close in this game. I don't think they ever got in the red zone and were 2 of 5 on FG including the burial for the game trying to make it a one score game they went wide on the FG and MTL returned for a TD. Argos go to Winnipeg next week. Winnipeg beat Hamilton LW with Buck Pierce back at QB and I bet a little of that but I didn't get what I wanted: which was an Argo outright win in the game here, an inflated line vs. Winnipeg (more inflated if Winnipeg lost again) and then bet Winnipeg plus the points. This is the CFL so as unlikely it seems that Winnipeg could turn their season around and make the playoffs----honestly it could happen with an 18 game season. But now the situation is Ray may be out and with the bad loss the Argos with or without him are in no position for a letdown against Winnipeg already 0-2 on their trip. It is a short week for the Argos too going 2 days less rest than Winnipeg. There isn't even a line up yet but Winnipeg plus any points with Jackson as the QB for the Argos I think would be a bet but maybe don't get that as the opener. With Ray starting and possibly hobbled may get the plus points but less than I would like. Maybe it is a classic head fake and Winnipeg will look like crap again and the Argos rally but I guess I just like Winnipeg to win. It won't be the first time an Argos season imploded.

Going to go against my last sentence here and taking the Argos for a tiny bet at +3.5. Pretty big adjustment for Jackson as the QB. He actually has a good record when he has played in this league as a starter which from what I read was 14-8. It is such a small bet not really a play for me but I do think the line got inflated. I wrote I would like plus points with Winnipeg vs. Jackson and probably wouldn't get it but I also didn't think I would get as many as 3.5 on Argos.