Atlanta/Carolina Total Analysis I didn't bet it under 48 but I do think I understand it. I have no opinions on it but perhaps this is a way to get a clue into NFL totals and Fezzik's model. He has been on the Carolina over a few times and was successful last week I know.
With the help of this week's USA Today I did some fairly simple analysis which I guess you can only do after several games and feel free to hack away at it.
(1) The real basic stats are Atlanta averages 22.42 pts per game and allows 20.33. Carolina has scored at an average rate of 24.16 pts per game and has allowed 27.0. The no analysis total then is perhaps an average of 42.75 and 51.16 which comes out to 46.955.
If totals are set this way I certainly can assume sharp bettors will win at this by recognizing situations, injuries,etc etc.
(2) I did a further analysis where I took Atlanta's 22.42 pts per game scored and that has been against a group of teams who average allowing 23.17 pts per game. So Atlanta at least on scoring pts (and if you are aware of all the situations where they should have scored more, shouldn't have scored any, the teams which were vulnerable, the fumbles at the 1 that won't be repeated, etc. you can make more of this number but I can't right now). However, I'm not surprised their scoring is a little below average.
(3) What is more interesting is that Atlanta has allowed only 20.33 pts per game vs. opponents who average 23.17 pts. Now I do know that they faced Yates last week vs. Houston so this is a good example of a situation where the numbers are looking better because I obviously really need an adjustment from Schaub to Yates but I do think there is some swirling around that Atlanta's D has been pretty good. It would be alot better without their first 2 games of the year where they allowed more than 30 pts each. GB only got 25 and New Orleans got 26 and 3 of those were in OT.
(4) Carolina has scored 24.16 against a schedule of teams that have allowed 22.94 pts per game.
(5) The big difference is their D of course which has permitted 27 pts per game against opponents only scoring 22.076 pts. That is huge no doubt about it.
A predicted score though might be for Atlanta 27/22.076*22.42=27.42 or 22.42/23.17*27=26.12. Let's call it 27 for Atlanta.
For Carolina I might come up with 20.33/23.68*24.16=20.74 or 24.16/22.94*20.33=21.41. Let's call that 21 pts.
That totals 48 pts. And let's just ignore that the predicted score doesn't match the point spread of the game.
I think a few other issues are that the Atlanta games are trending low recently. The NO overtime game scored 49 but their D has held opponents quite low--granted weak opponents. But they've seen NO, Det, GB, Philly, Carolina this year and they have had 4 of their 12 games go over 47 pts including the first one with Carolina which scored exactly 48.
For Carolina 8 of their 12 games have scored more than 47 pts including 6 of their first 7 games.
From a handicapping perspective I think the fair line is around 47 or 48. It is tough to get this line to be something like 50 IMO so if one is staring at 48 as the total I think one might bet under based on this but I also think if you stared at 47 you might be over as there is some recognition that 47 and 48 are at least of some signficance for NFL totals. A handicapper has to like some of these Carolina games going over but another handicapper has to note the trend that Atlanta games are going way below these numbers.
Another factor is that if a D is any good at all Carolina struggles a bit. They got 16 on Jax, 17 on Atlanta, 3 on the Titans. They got 38 on TB ( a noted weak Run D by many on this board0, 35 on Detroit (another weak run D??I'm not sure), 27 on Indy. You might get the angle to the under that if Carolina sees a real D they don't score as prolifically so that the average analysis I did above is flattering to them.
I know one of my cappers hates plays released before hand to the public but you can see by the projected score I had that Atlanta would indeed cover the spread and I must say that fits with this pro capper placing a wager on the Falcons this weekend for more than his usual bet size.
