Auburn -1/2 over Oregon - 1rst Quarter Action

Auburn -1/2 over Oregon - 1rst Quarter Action Auburn -1/2 over Oregon 1rst Quarter +134 (1/10 of my size of my game bet) I love the angle on this play...The reason for the value of half a point and the positive payback is the propensity after one quarter to be tied. The problem is the lazy oddsmaker didn't do their homework and forgot to factor in that Oregon goes for 2 points after scoring TD's many times in the first quarters of games. Therefore, the likelihood of a tie after 15 minutes of play is substantially dimished. Either Oregon will have a 1 point lead 8-7 over Auburn, or they will fail on their two point play and we are looking at an Auburn lead potentially of 7-6. But for the sake of playing this quarter in a vacuum, Oregon HC Chip Kelly's aggression wasn't factored into this. This also serves as a nice volatility dampener against my very stiff bet on Oregon +3 in the game as of now. So in essence, two plays that offer positive value and are a nice tool to a portfolio...

Why don't you try to bet Oregon ML as well?

[QUOTE=Justin1820;37195]Why don't you try to bet Oregon ML as well?[/QUOTE] B/c I have a huge bet on Oregon +3 and the play on Auburn provided two points of value, so betting Oregon ML is too highly correlated to my bet on them at +3 and I won't be getting the value for it as if they were a 3 point dog...

I also like this play since Oreg this season has been very strong in the 2nd half but at times a slow starter.

Have you seen how often Oregon is successful on those 2 pointers? Me thinks you should be looking for Oregon -.5 :-)