Betting UN on longest FG not so great these days Taking UN 44.5, 45.5 and even 46.5 (the squarer the shop, the higher they
usually make the line) on longest FG has been a pretty good bet over time.
When you filter it with bad weather, indoor Ks traveling to outdoor venues
and certain coaches just unwilling to try from that distance it was one of my
favorites. This year things have shifted some. More long attempts this year
and more success (and more losing bets). The article below by Eddy Elfenbein
presents FG info that strongly suggests a re-evaluation of that bet and other related
bets is in order and also explains where the extra scoring in the NFL this year is
actually coming from.
-"This season, kickers have nailed 45 of their 63 attempts from 50 yards or more.
That’s more accurate than the league was from any distance 25 years ago. Since
1994, long-range accuracy has doubled and long-range attempts-per-game are up
by more than 63% from just five years ago."-
The increase in attempts means it's just not merely a matter of Ks running good. They
are clearly making more attempts. When betting props it's all about opportunity and
FG kickers are just getting more shots.
Another prop that has to be taking a hit is betting UN 3.5 FGs in a game. Usually UN
is where you look first but not this year. Instead of 3.5 UN -170, sounds like the avg
line should be closer to 3.5 -125.
-"Improved kicking is rapidly changing football strategy. In fact, this season is on track to
be the highest-scoring season since the AFL-NFL merger, and kickers deserve a lot of the credit.
Touchdowns-per-game are nearly identical to where they were 30 years ago, but field goals-per-game
are up by 45%."-
The entire article can be found here.
[url]https://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2011/11/the-under-reported-football-story-of-the-year.html[/url]
