Black Sunday for some Pros

I took it in the shorts too. Saturday and Sunday. First losing weekend this season.

Old School I have to agree all any good book needs is enogh green backs to weather the storm.

Old School [QUOTE=Old School;7193]I've never bet a teaser, but before this year, I had never bet a team total. Now I LOVE them! Bet Ind at -13, the only game where my power ratings differed by 3 points from the book's line. Yes, my friends had a great Sunday, but still a losing week (destroyed in CFB). No solid book ever has a losing year. Ditto for any sharp bettor.[/QUOTE] I don't know how you got destroyed in CFB. I bet all your stuff and won a bunch of money!

[QUOTE=MobileBandit;7200]I don't know how you got destroyed in CFB. I bet all your stuff and won a bunch of money![/QUOTE] I think he meant his friends go destroyed in CFB.

Ahhhh... [QUOTE=edsherpa;7208]I think he meant his friends go destroyed in CFB.[/QUOTE] Thanks, ed. I missed that.

[QUOTE=towelie;7178]you would have thought some of these old pros would have changed their ways after 05. I almost fell out of my chair this morning when I looked at my nfl portfolio I had bet this week and there wasn't one dog on the card, but that is where the value is at right now. Until the books adjust for how bad some of these teams are there is still value fading some of these dregs.[/QUOTE] 2005 was a disaster for me with favs covering 58%. In hindsight it was the best thing that ever happened to me. I went from being a 75%+ dog player to a 50/50 player and upped my winning percentage by 3-4% (58% to 59%) each of the last three years. I had all favs this week (SD, DAL & JETS). Some weeks are just like that. This year I am running 58% favs. It's just the way things have shaken out.

[QUOTE=Sixth Sense;7211]I went from being a 75%+ dog player to a 50/50 player and upped my winning percentage ... .[/QUOTE] What did you change then?

[QUOTE=KimLee;7220]What did you change then?[/QUOTE] I took out some of the systems, which were mostly dog oriented, that had good records and met my criteria for using, but when they had bad years, they were pretty bad. So, although the system, as a whole was good, when they lost, they may have been five, ten games under .500, for example. I kept only systems, that when they lost, were maybe a game or two under .500. That allowed me to avoid continually losing with a system that just wasn't working for a particular year. I also added more fundamental situations to balance out what I was using. It was mostly technical prior to that (letdown, momentum, bounce back, etc). What I now have is certainly the technical and contrarian type situations that the NFL is all about but also the fundamental, which means if a team is better at the line of scrimmage than their opponent, they should win that battle and that gives them a chance to cover.

[QUOTE=Old School;7193] No solid book ever has a losing year. Ditto for any sharp bettor.[/QUOTE] a couple brash statements here. i know handfuls of sharp bettors who have lost over a given 365 day period. if you think you are immune to this in some way, you have alot to learn. as far as books are concerned, if you are referring to mb and pin it makes sense. others, not so.

I got hurt Fairly bad.... Lost all my winnings from Saturday and gave more, too.